NFL Experts Are Picking Against the Bills in Week 1 Despite Being Favored

The Buffalo Bills are favored to beat the Houston Texans in Week 1, but a number of NFL experts aren't buying it.

As of writing, Buffalo sits as a 1.5-point favorite over Houston, with the Bills at -118 on the moneyline. Despite that, pundits at ESPN and NFL.com have largely leaned toward the Texans in their predictions for Sunday's matchup, adding another layer to what is already one of the more intriguing games of Week 1.

In fact, only one person between NFL.com and ESPN's Get Up morning show thinks the Bills pull out the win.

Now, it's easy to understand why.

The Bills' struggles against Houston have been particularly pronounced when they've had to travel to NRG Stadium. Buffalo hasn't won in Houston since 2006, going 0-6 in its six games there since, including the playoffs. Overall, the Bills have lost seven of their last nine games against the Texans and are just 1-4 in their last five against Houston. The only win was a 40-0 win at home in 2021

Even when the games have been close, Houston has consistently found a way to come out on top. In those four losses over the last five meetings, Buffalo has lost by an average of just 4.25 points, showing just how thin the margin has been between the two teams.

The most recent meeting is probably the biggest reason many analysts are siding with Houston.

The Texans beat the Bills 23-19 last season in Houston, sacking Josh Allen eight times and repeatedly disrupting Buffalo's offense. Allen has acknowledged that he needs to play differently this time around, particularly when it comes to taking unnecessary sacks and putting the Bills in difficult situations.

That history makes Sunday's game a legitimate test for Buffalo's new-look team under head coach Joe Brady.

There is also one particularly interesting statistic working in the Bills' favor.

James Cook rushed for more than 100 yards in nine games last season, and Buffalo went 8-1 in those contests. The only loss, however, came against Houston.

That makes Cook one of the most important players to watch Sunday. Buffalo's ability to establish the run could help keep Houston's defense from teeing off on Allen, while also giving the Bills a chance to control the game on the road.

That's kind of why the national picks for the game are interesting. Vegas and the rest of the betting market aren't treating Houston as the better team despite the Texans' recent dominance in this matchup. Buffalo is still favored, albeit narrowly, suggesting this game is essentially viewed as a toss-up.

The Bills also enter the matchup with a new coaching staff, a new defensive system and several notable additions, including DJ Moore and Bradley Chubb. Houston, meanwhile, has one of the NFL's best defenses and has already proven it can make life extremely difficult for Allen.

Buffalo has plenty working against it historically, which is why the Bills being favored doesn't necessarily mean experts are convinced they will win. If Buffalo does break the recent trend, it likely won't come from trying to force the issue. The Bills will need to protect the football, run effectively, and keep Houston's pass rush from taking over.