Ball security, balance, and discipline will decide the winner between the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars. Here’s how Buffalo can win on the road and move on.
If the Buffalo Bills are going to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars and win their first road playoff game in over 30 years this weekend, it’s not going to be complicated. It’s also not going to be easy.
After all, playoff games on the road rarely are.
This one, however, is going to come down to doing a few specific things right and not getting in their own way. That’s it. No magic formula. No reinventing the wheel. Just execution when the pressure tightens.
The first thing, and the one that can’t be negotiated, is taking care of the football. Jacksonville lives off mistakes. They wait for quarterbacks to press, for throws to sail, and for balls to pop loose. When that happens, they flip games fast. Look no further than their Week 5 matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Bills have shown all season that when they protect the ball, they’re hard to beat. When they don’t, things can unravel in a hurry. Every possession needs to end with a kick. Punt, field goal, extra point. Anything else gives the Jaguars exactly what they want.
On defense, the job isn’t to shut Trevor Lawrence down completely. That’s just unrealistic to expect against a quarterback playing as well as he has. The goal is to keep him uncomfortable. When Lawrence gets into rhythm, Jacksonville’s offense feels smooth and dangerous. When he doesn’t, it can stall just as quickly. Buffalo has to disrupt timing, force him to reset, and make every throw feel a little harder than he wants it to be.
They don’t need a sack parade. They need hesitation.
Offensively, Josh Allen will always be at the center of the conversation, but this can’t turn into a game where he’s asked to do everything. He’s been great in road playoff games. The issue hasn’t been Allen. It’s been how narrow the margin gets when he’s forced into superhero mode for four quarters.
That’s why the run game matters so much. When James Cook is involved early, the offense settles down. The game slows. Defenses have to respect something other than Allen scrambling around and creating chaos. The Jaguars are tough against the run---the best team in terms of yards against per game---, but Buffalo can’t abandon it just because yards might be hard to come by. Staying committed keeps the game balanced and keeps Allen from having to force throws that don’t need to be forced.
The receivers have to help, too. This can’t be another game where the outside options disappear for long stretches. Somebody has to win a matchup. Somebody has to make a catch in traffic. Brandon Cooks showed signs of life recently, and that needs to carry over. Drops and missed chances don’t just kill drives in the playoffs. They swing momentum.
That’s where the tight ends come back into focus. Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox are the players Allen trusts when things get tight, and Jacksonville has struggled all season to defend the middle of the field. In games like this, quarterbacks lean on familiarity. If the Bills are moving the ball consistently, there’s a good chance it runs through their tight ends.
More than anything, though, Buffalo needs to play a full game. Not a slow start followed by a frantic comeback; not a track meet where every drive feels like a must-score. Jacksonville won’t let them hang around if they come out flat. Starting fast matters. Playing clean matters. Staying patient matters.
None of this is complicated. That’s what makes it frustrating when it goes wrong.
If the Bills protect the football, keep Lawrence uncomfortable, stay balanced on offense, and avoid beating themselves, they give themselves a real chance. That’s what playoff football usually comes down to.
Do those things, and the rest takes care of itself.