Buffalo is back in the postseason, but road games, run defense matchups, and thin margins define their playoff reality.
The Buffalo Bills are headed back to the playoffs, and, on paper, that should feel reassuring. Seven straight postseason appearances isn't something to dismiss, especially in a league built on parity. But this time, things feel heavier than most, shaped less by excitement and more by uncertainty.
Buffalo enters the final week of the regular season positioned near the bottom of the AFC playoff bracket. A sixth or seventh seed is the most realistic outcome, and either way, it means the same thing. The Bills are going on the road to open the playoffs for the first time since 2019.
That alone adds pressure.
This franchise has not won a road playoff game in more than three decades. Since joining the NFL in 1970, the Bills are 3-13 away from home in the postseason. Under Sean McDermott and Josh Allen, they're 0-4. Several of those losses were close, decided by a handful of plays, but close does not change the result.
At some point, the pattern becomes impossible to ignore.
The potential matchups only complicate the picture. Jacksonville looms as a likely destination if Buffalo climbs to the sixth seed. That city holds painful memories, from the 2017 Wild Card loss the year they ended a 17-year playoff drought to the sense that the Bills let a winnable game slip away. The rosters are different now, but the history remains.
New England is another possibility, though a less likely one. Buffalo has proven it can win there, and familiarity could help. Even so, playoff familiarity cuts both ways, and there are no comfortable road games in January.
What makes this path especially difficult is how it challenges Buffalo’s identity. The Bills have leaned into the run game more than ever this season, finding balance and consistency behind James Cook. That strength could be tested immediately. Most of the teams Buffalo is likely to face rank near the top of the league in run defense. What has worked all season may be harder to lean on when it matters most.
That shifts the burden back to Josh Allen, as it so often does.
Allen gives the Bills a chance in any game. That's not in question. But asking him to be perfect on the road, against elite defenses, with little margin for error, is a dangerous way to live. The difference between a heroic performance and a season ending mistake can be one decision, one throw, one forced play.
That's the reality of this playoff run. There's no soft landing and there's no favorable draw. Every possible path requires Buffalo to do something it has not yet proven it can do consistently.
And yet, the AFC feels open in a way it has not in years. No team feels unstoppable, and it's hard to pick a clear favorite. Every contender carries flaws, including the Bills. That keeps the door cracked open.
This postseason will not be about seeding or matchups as much as execution and composure. Buffalo will need to start faster, protect the football, and find ways to win ugly when necessary. They'll need to be comfortable being uncomfortable.
The road is difficult, and history is not on their side. But the opportunity is still there. Whether this group finally changes the narrative or adds another chapter to it will be decided quickly, one hostile stadium at a time.