The Buffalo Bills open the playoffs on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Here's what we think will happen this weekend, and who walks away with the win.
By the time the playoffs arrive, there’s not much left to debate. You either trust what you’ve built, or you don’t.
That’s where the Buffalo Bills are heading into their Wild Card game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. They know who they are, they know what works, and they know what can undo them if they aren’t careful. With no safety net left, execution is everything.
Why This Matchup Feels So Tight
Jacksonville doesn’t overwhelm teams with star power, but that’s not their game. The Jaguars win by forcing mistakes and capitalizing when opponents lose discipline. They’re aggressive defensively, comfortable taking risks, and more than willing to let Trevor Lawrence push the ball if it means flipping momentum.
That’s why this game feels narrow. The Jaguars don’t need to dominate Buffalo. They just need help.
The Bills’ Path Is Simple, Not Easy
For Buffalo, everything starts with ball security. When the Bills protect the football, they control games. When they don’t, things can quickly get derailed. Jacksonville thrives in those moments. Short fields, sudden swings, and crowd energy are how the Jaguars tilt close games in their favor.
Offensively, this can’t turn into four quarters of Josh Allen playing hero. He doesn’t need to force throws to win this game. Jacksonville will give him opportunities underneath and over the middle, and patience matters more than explosiveness in January.
Where Buffalo Can Control the Game
That’s where the tight ends come in. Dalton Kincaid has become Allen’s safety valve, especially when pressure builds. If the Jaguars are willing to live with those completions, Buffalo should take them all afternoon. It may not be flashy, but it keeps the offense on schedule.
The same can be said for the run game. James Cook doesn’t necessarily need a monster game, but he needs to be involved. Staying balanced slows the game down and prevents Allen from feeling like everything has to happen at once. Abandoning the run only plays into Jacksonville’s hands. The Bills are 8-1 when Cook has 100 rushing yards. It's likely going to be needed again to pull out this win.
Defensively, the assignment isn’t to shut Lawrence down. It’s to keep him uncomfortable. When Lawrence plays fast and confident, Jacksonville’s offense opens up. When he’s forced to reset or hesitate, mistakes can come.
The Prediction
All of this points in the same direction. This isn’t a game about highlight plays. It’s about composure, patience, and handling the moment better than the other side.
During the latest episode of Bills Roundtable, both Mike Straw and Anthony Moeglin land on the same conclusion for different reasons.
Moeglin believes that Buffalo’s experience shows up late, especially if the game is tight late, and that the Bills protect the ball, taking away a Jaguars strength. Straw feels the Bills don't win if Cook doesn't hit the 100 yard mark. However, he feels he gets there and that the Bills flying under the radar will benefit how they play.
At the end of the day, both expect a tight game, and both expect tension into the final minutes. Ultimately, both see the Bills pulling out the win.
Mike: Bills 28, Jaguars 24
Anthony: Bills 27, Jaguars 24