Broncos Could Be Better While Winning Fewer Games

One of the fun numerical exercises that starts to happen in the NFL around this time of year is each team’s projected over/under number for wins in the upcoming campaign. It’s great fodder for sports talk types and gambling aficionados, and for certain teams the number can serve as an excellent jumping-off point for some compelling arguments. 

The Denver Broncos certainly meet that criteria, as did the choice of Vic Tafur of The Athletic, who picked under 9.5 as his over/under number for the Broncos. It’s a stunning drop given Denver’s track record under coach Sean Payton, the addition of Jaylen Waddle and the overall quality of the roster, the defense especially. 

So what gives, as Tafur asked in his ranking? Like many people, Tafur is counting on a slow start, given that quarterback Bo Nix is recovering from ankle surgery and the brutal opening schedule contains a murderer’s row that includes the Kansas City Chiefs, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks. He did mention that he’s not all that enthusiastic about making the selection, which is understandable. 

The problem with this kind of pick is that it underestimates Denver’s ability to win with defense, and it also underestimates Payton’s adaptability. The potential fall back here feels like it will land around ten, and it’s hard to buy the Broncos falling under .500 if Nix’s health stays on track. 

The variables in favor of Denver improving also include the addition of a highly-lauded play caller, assuming new offensive coordinator Davis Webb actually gets to do that. 

The Broncos certainly have enough weapons to score points, and the fact that Webb reportedly interviewed well for both coordinator and head coaching possibilities speaks well to the possibility of improvement. 

The weakness that would lend credence to this prediction is the running game and the fact that the Broncos haven’t gone out and acquired someone to compete with oft-injured J.K. Dobbins. The Broncos did draft running back Jonah Coleman, but he comes with an injury history that might make his contributions problematic. 

Then there’s the best-case scenario, i.e., Nix recovers, he becomes more mobile as the schedule unfolds, and the Waddle addition works and makes the Broncos more explosive. That would put the Broncos back in the 11-12 win range, which would undermine the number presented by Tafur quite a bit, even with the scheduling issues.