Broncos Current Winning Formula Isn’t Sustainable

The Denver Broncos have a winning formula, sort of, but it’s been incredibly shaky so far. The combination of a brilliant defense and an inept and deeply-flawed offense can be impressive at times, but it’s not sustainable over the course of a 17-game schedule. 

Coach Sean Payton knows this, and he acknowledged as much in a couple of his postgame comments after Denver’s 17-14 overtime win against the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night. To quote Payton verbatim, he said,  "I’m a little bit of a realist to know that 4-2 could easily be 2-4,” according to a writeup about the Broncos winning formula from Nick Kosmider of The Athletic. 

Payton’s in a tough spot here. The Broncos forced three turnovers Thursday night, including Ja’Quan McMillian’s game-changing interception of Sam Darnold in overtime. Per Kosmider, the Broncos now have 10 takeaways this season, which is just four less than Denver’s total from last season, and the writer compared them to a champion wrestler who just added another finishing move.

Then there’s the offense. Payton played his hole card early by taking over the play calling from offensive coordinator Davis Webb, but it didn’t matter. Bo Nix continues to struggle, and he’s getting worse instead of better despite Payton’s direct guidance. 

The question now is which offense represents the real one going forward. Was it the unit that looked sharp at times in the first half in posting a 14-3 lead, or the one that showed up in the second half and overtime that nearly lost the game for the Broncos? 

The second half looked like far more than a “disconnect,” to use Nix’s description of what’s been happening. The only strength down the stretch was that Nix didn’t turn the ball over, and it looked like that was by design when Payton realized he had a unit that couldn’t even get a first down. 

The problem going forward is that this formula isn’t sustainable, and Payton knows it. He’s in a very tricky position with Nix, who is coming off a serious injury as he tries to play his way into a lucrative extension.

The Broncos are now 15-2 in one-score games dating back to last season, per Kosmider, who also noted that regression due to football luck and other factors hasn’t happened yet. But it’s staring the Broncos right in the face if the Broncos offense continues to play they way it did late against Seattle, and right now it’s all about fixing the quarterback.