The Denver Broncos have a chance to further close in on their quest for the American Football Conference West division crown with a win over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 14.
Per ESPN Analytics, “The Broncos enter with an 86% chance to win AFC West, which increases to 91% with a win and drops to 74% with a loss.”
Even with a loss, the Broncos still have the best odds to win the division. However, the sooner Denver clinches a playoff berth and the division the better, so I expect the Broncos to come out with an additional edge this week.
The Raiders are 2-10 this season and could be without star edge rusher Maxx Crosby, the best defender on the team by a long shot. If he does play, it will be harder to stop Las Vegas’ pass rush, but that would be a problem for star right tackle Mike McGlinchey.
ESPN’s Seth Walder boldly predicts that star left tackle Garett Bolles will win every single pass-block rep this week.
“Broncos LT Garett Bolles will record a 100% pass block win rate in the game. Bolles ranks sixth in the category (94.5%), and he has the benefit of not facing Maxx Crosby on Sunday, who typically aligns opposite the RT.”
If Bolles is this locked in, the Broncos should have no problem scoring points on this weak defense, although Denver escaped with a 10-7 win over Las Vegas in Week 10. Even if Denver struggles again offensively, their strong defense should be able to steal another game, and this defense is playing for something other than wins.
“With one sack in this game, the Broncos will reach 52 -- the same number of sacks the 2015 defense had in the entire regular season,” ESPN’s Jeff Legwold wrote Friday. “Granted, the 2015 defense cemented its legacy with a ferocious postseason run that ended with a Super Bowl 50 win. But this season's defense is still on pace to at least tie the NFL's single-season sack record (72), and the Raiders have allowed the second-highest sack total in the league (46 or 3.8 per game).”
Expect a huge day from the Broncos’ pass-rush, especially from star linebacker Nik Bonitto (9.5 sacks) and edge rusher Jonathon Cooper (7.5 sacks). Denver’s defense has 11 players with two sacks or more.
There’s a lot at stake for the Broncos and nothing at stake for the Raiders. Las Vegas will try to play spoiler, but this Broncos team is just too strong.