Denver's top playoff seeding faces a critical test. A sputtering run game, exposed by injury, could derail their championship aspirations.
The Denver Broncos clinched the top seed in the AFC, which means the postseason will through Denver as long as they can win football games.
The Broncos have a first-round bye also, which is much-needed, and they get the benefit of extra rest and not having to travel.
However, they are not perfect by any means, and the Broncos have had their fair share of concerning games this season.
Kevin Patra of NFL.com revealed one fatal flaw for each playoff team, and the Broncos' flaw is their run game.
Here's what Patra wrote.
"The entire Broncos offense has been an inconsistent jumble of fits and starts. It’s like a jerky roller coaster that you’re never sure will make it to that first peak. It’s gotten to the point where home fans were booing in Week 18 when Denver’s offense couldn’t bury Chargers backups. When Bo Nix gets rolling, the second-year quarterback can make things happen, as evidenced by furious comebacks this season. However, against playoff-caliber opponents, that’s not a recipe to stay in the tourney long. Drops and penalties have been an issue for the Broncos offense -- Nix had 313 yards lost to drops this season, fifth-most in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats. The bigger concern to me is the drop-off in the running game following J.K. Dobbins' injury. The veteran running back went down in Week 10 with a ligament tear in his foot. He still leads the Broncos in rushing by 232 yards (772 to 540 for RJ Harvey). Sans Dobbins, Denver’s run game has screeched to a halt. In the first 10 weeks, Broncos running backs generated a -0.07 EPA per carry, 14th in the NFL, and 0.9 rush yards over expected per carry, tied for fourth-best. Since Week 10, those figures have plummeted to -0.14 EPA/C, tied for 25th, and -0.7 RYOE/C, 31st. Harvey has splashed some big plays and been stellar in the red zone, but Denver needs more down to down to keep Nix out of long-distance situations for the Broncos to thrive against playoff defenses."
The injury to Dobbins sure changed the trajectory of the rushing attack, although the rookie RJ Harvey has done better than many expected.
The issue is, after him there aren't many options, and it remains to be seen how effective Harvey will be in the postseason against some tough defenses.
At the end of the day, the Broncos live and die on their defense, and if they want to get to the Super Bowl, they will need their defense to play at a high level all the way throughout the postseason.