The Denver Broncos are gearing up for their first playoff game, which will be in the Divisional Round, because the team secured the coveted first-round bye.
Denver will take on the lowest remaining seed, and it could be the Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans, Buffalo Bills or Los Angeles Chargers.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell put out his predictions for the entire National Football League playoff bracket, and he predicts that the Bills will defeat the third-seeded Jacksonville Jaguars and move on to face the Broncos.
Last year, these two teams squared off and Buffalo dominated rookie quarterback Bo Nix. The Bills won 31-7, but these teams are much different this time around. Denver is the No. 1 seed, and the Bills had their fair share of struggles this year, failing to win the American Football Conference East division title for the first time since 2019.
“Of course, that was last season, and these teams are different now,” Barnwell wrote Thursday. “The Bills have struggled for consistency on offense, even if the drop-off might be overstated; they've fallen only from second to third in the NFL in EPA per play. The Broncos were desperate to avoid giving up big plays to this offense last year, but the Bills beat them with a thousand small cuts. They went 8-of-15 on third down and converted both of their fourth downs. Josh Allen ran eight times for 46 yards and five first downs, and the Bills eventually hit Curtis Samuel on a deep shot for a 55-yard score.”
Barnwell notes that the Bills can exploit the Broncos’ biggest defensive weakness, just like they did last year. The Bills need to stay away from star cornerback Pat Surtain II, who typically would line up against a team’s No. 1 receiver. However, that player doesn’t exist in Buffalo; QB Josh Allen spreads the wealth to his tight ends and running backs as well as his receivers.
Offensively, the Broncos have shown inconsistency at times. Denver adopted more of a pass-heavy offense midway through the season and it has worked for them, though the Bills defense is good against quarterbacks outside of the pocket, and it showed in last year's playoff matchup.
Nix had early success on the move, but it fizzled out and didn’t amount to much outside of an early touchdown.
“Home-field advantage and a week of rest will help Denver, but this just doesn't seem like a good matchup for what the Broncos do well, and I'm a little spooked by their defensive decline after the bye.”
Barnwell predicts that Denver will be one-and-done despite the excellent regular season, with the Bills winning 27-17 in a heartbreaker for Broncos fans.