Prediction Marketing Offer Based On Mahomes Start Pulled

The Denver Broncos probably believe quite strongly that they’ll be playing against quarterback Patrick Mahomes when they take the field at Arrowhead Stadium against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sept. 14. Mahomes has hit all his rehab goals to date, after all, and his stated goal is to start in Week 1. 

But Broncos fans who are convinced about this won’t be able to play the markets and cash in on their belief with Polymarket US, the prediction market company that allows both pre- and in-game predictions to be turned into cash via cryptocurrency, as the company is following guidance from a fellow regulator and withdrawing plans to offer trading on Mahomes’ return to the field, according to a report from David Purdum of ESPN. 

The NFL believes these kinds of predictions are basically bets, and it wants to see trades like the one based on Mahomes’ appearance to be prohibited. The question that was phrased "Will Patrick Mahomes participate in the Kansas City Chiefs ' Week 1 regular-season game?" was initially offered, but the filing has now been withdrawn. 

The regulatory agency involved in this is teh Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which asked Polymarket and other similar prediction market operators to remove contracts such as the one involving Mahomes playing in Week 1. Polymarket withdrew the filing to be in compliance, according to Purdum, and it says it’s going to continue to engage with the federal agency about staying that way. 

But another company, Kalshi, is also offering trading on Mahomes, in addition to other markets based on when injured players will return. Kalshi did not respond to any directions from CFTC regarding the markets, according to the ESPN report. 

The NFL considers markets like the one being offered on Mahomes to be injury-related, and the league believes these markets could be tied to injuries or officiated and artificially manipulated accordingly. 

Jeff Miller, the executive vice president of affairs for the NFL, says he hopes the CFTC will prohibit these kinds of markets and create a process where the league can review them before they’re posted. 

"We hope to get to the place where we have a very efficient system someday if they're legalized in that same way that we can protect the integrity of the competition perfectly," Miller said Wednesday at the NFL owners meeting in Atlanta.

The issue is part of a broader battle over prediction markets in general that’s taking place in multiple states over whether these offerings constitute gambling or financial swaps. 

A federal appeals court in San Francisco ruled in favor of Nevada and its state gaming control board and denied Kalsi’s request to offer trading on sports or politics unless the company acquires a gambling license, and Kalshi hasn’t responded to that ruling yet.