Both Mike Florio and Chris Simms of Pro Football Talk expect the Denver Broncos to beat the New York Giants on Sunday, but their margin-of-victory call is very different. Florio has Denver beating New York in a close one, 27-24, while Simms has the Broncos posting a more comfortable win at 24-13. 

The comment they offered is also telling: “The Broncos need to start winning the winnable games more convincingly.” It’s an important point with Denver currently involved in a tight three-ream race in the AFC West, especially since the Kansas City Chiefs proved themselves to be the ultimate experts in doing this last year. 

The Broncos haven’t quite figured it out yet. Their shaky win against the New York Jets in London last week showed that they still have some ground to cover when it comes to games they should win, and Sunday’s home game against the Giants should provide a good test of where they are. 

Simms’ prediction is likely based on the Broncos defense facing a rookie quarterback at home. That’s usually a recipe for disaster for the road team, and no one quite knows if Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart will be up for the challenge. A lot of Dart’s stats to date haven’t been great, but the Giants are playing hard under his leadership, and Dart has shown the ability to make plays. 

Schedule-wise, this matters because Denver is in the middle of a three-game stretch of games they should win. They nearly let the Jets game get away from them, and they can’t afford to have the same thing happen against the Giants. They also play the Dallas Cowboys at home next week, and if the Broncos manage to let any of these games slip away, it will likely be a sign that they’re not ready for prime time as a division title contender. 

The big problem is the offense. Most of the focus in this area has been on quarterback Bo Nix, but the Broncos now have a massive hole at left guard that needs to be solved for Denver’s offense to become more consistent. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw may come back from his stint on IR, but with guards Ben Powers and Matt Peart taking his place on IR, it’s not quite clear how they’ll replace them just yet. 

But the Broncos need to dominate this game regardless of the lineup shuffle. It doesn’t look all that significant compared to next months matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, but if Denver really is serious about getting that AFC West title, this is a sneaky statement game after the London debacle.