One of the biggest storylines over the course of the Denver Bronco’s 11-game win streak has been the toughness and impenetrability of the Denver defense, but lately that rating has been more myth than fact. According to Mike Sando of The Athletic, the Broncos have ranked 29th in defensive EPA per play since Week 11. The Jacksonville Jaguars rank first.
The eye-test version of this problem was very apparent both yesterday against the Jaguars and the week before against the Green Bay Packers. The Packers ran up and down the field in the first half of Denver’s 34-26 win, but the defense stiffened in the red zone, then won the game when the Broncos’ vaunted pass rush was finally able to get home.
The Jags refined that formula. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence got the ball out quickly and accurately throughout the game, and Lawrence also minimized the impact of Denver’s sacks by anticipating pressure and getting back close to the line of scrimmage. In addition, Lawrence used his athleticism effectively to find running lanes and use them to frustrate the pass rushers.
These tactics brought back an issue that surfaced early this season: Receivers running free and wide open in the middle of the field. Combine that with a secondary that had a complete breakdown in basic tackling techniques, and the results was a 34-point effort by the Jacksonville offense that had the Broncos offense constantly trying to come from behind.
Then there’s the emotional part of Denver’s letdown. Long win streaks become increasingly tough to sustain, and it may have simply been time for Denver to break. Sando’s version of this was an anonymous quote he used from a coach from another team about the Broncos’ mindset.
“Historically, Denver plays really well at home, so the fact they were not able to close out and actually got punked at home, maybe that tells you they did not take Jacksonville seriously,” the coach said. “The reality is, well, who takes Jacksonville seriously?”
The rest of the league is starting to, but we’ve been here with the Jags before. They’ve had brief stretches where they look like world beaters, but then they slip back. The Broncos, meanwhile, have more immediate concerns.
It’s almost inconceivable that playing the Chiefs could be considered a get-right game, but that’s exactly what’s going to happen on Christmas night this week. The Chiefs were reduced to playing third string quarterback Chris Oladokun, who should be a feast for the Denver defense. If he’s not, it’s clearly time to worry.