It’s now official—the Denver Broncos will get to play the disrespect card, with the Buffalo Bills opening at 1.5-point favorites for this Saturday’s divisional round showdown.
We’ve seen this movie before, so we know the basic script. Several members of the Broncos defense, most notably linebacker Nik Bonitto, will offer commentary about how much the Broncos love this, and how much it motivates them.
Coach Sean Payton will echo those comments, albeit in softer, coach-speak terms, and various Bills players will counter with comments about what a tough opponent the Broncos will be and how much they really respect them.
The pre-game script may be familiar, but this game offers some new and intriguing storylines. The biggest will be the quarterback battle between Bo Nix and Josh Allen, especially given how badly Nix and the Broncos were dominated in their wild-card game in Buffalo last year.
The Broncos were playoff newbies back then, but they took a big step up this year. They struggled out of the gate, but once the defense established itself as a prominent force, Denver went on an unlikely 11-game win streak.
That was when Payton seized the opportunity at hand. He’s said all along that just making the playoffs was no longer the goal, but it’s hard to imagine that Payton had any idea that the Chiefs would stumble badly enough for the Broncos to seize the top seed in the AFC.
But that’s exactly what happened, and this is Denver’s “reward.” The good news is that they’re at home, and Allen is beat up and dealing with injuries to his foot, knee and hand. None of that mattered on Saturday against the Jacksonville Jaguars, though, as Allen simply slipped on his Superman cape and bested Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence down the stretch.
He could do the same thing against Denver, but there’s another factor at work here. Winning three straight road playoff games is the toughest route to the Super Bowl in the NFL, and there’s an attrition factor at work here. At some point the teams trying to do it start to run out of gas, which would be a viable theory were it not for Allen’s formidable presence.
There’s more than that to the theory this year, though. The Bills still have running back James Cook III as their complementary weapon, but Allen is decidedly short on targets this year, and it’s become abundantly clear that the only two players he trusts are receiver Khalil Shakir and tight end Dawson Knox.
This line will probably swing back and forth all week, and it’s basically a pick-‘em game. It’s as good an opportunity as Denver will ever get to make it to the Super Bowl, though, if they can capitalize on all the hard work they've done to date.