At first glance, tomorrow’s game against the Las Vegas Raiders looks like a snoozer for the Denver Broncos. The Raiders can barely get out of their own way at this point, much less beat anyone, so as long as the Broncos respect their opponent they should be able to take care of business.
But this game is actually vital if the Broncos want to get that top seed in the AFC. It comes with a first-round bye, and the Broncos have been trading blows with the New England Patriots, who are currently a half-game ahead of Denver and on their bye week.
A Denver win would lift the Broncos into a tie with New England, and it would also take care of one of those all-important tiebreakers that could come into play. The Broncos would sweep the season series against the Raiders with a win tomorrow, while New England actually lost to Las Vegas in their home opener, which seems borderline unfathomable at this point.
Nick Kosmider of The Athletic did a deeper dive into those tiebreakers, and they can be gnarly to untangle. The Pats and Broncos don’t play each other, and they’re in separate divisions, so conference record is next up on the tiebreaker list.
Both teams are currently 6-2 against AFC opponents, and they have the same number of games remaining against AFC teams, which is four each. Both teams face significant challenges—the Broncos still have tough division games coming up against the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs, plus a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, while New England still has to face the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens.
Another tiebreaker Kosmider mentioned as critical is their mark against common opponents. The teams to note here are the Raiders, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, New York Giants and Cincinnati Bengals.
A win tomorrow against the Raiders would make the Broncos 5-0 against these teams, which is a record New England will be unable to match because of their loss to the Raiders. A half-dozen other bye permutations await, but It’s still way too early to start delving into all of those at the moment. The point here is easy to sum up--this is a two-team race now, and tomorrow's game is what matters for the Raiders.
The Broncos nearly stumbled against the Raiders a few weeks ago, and they can’t afford to do that again tomorrow if they want to keep their chances of getting that first-round bye intact.