The Denver Broncos are decided underdogs going into Sunday’s AFC championship game against the New England Patriots, and they’ll need a lot of things to go right to win and advance to the Super Bowl.
Some of those things are based on specific matchups, and Ted Nguyen of The Athletic did an intriguing breakdown that explored several of the most important ones. He did miss a couple, though, so we’ll add one or two of our own to the mix, with the first covering backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.
New England’s pass rush vs Stidham’s mobility issues
Nguyễn indirectly explored this issue with several videos in which quarterback Bo Nix was able to identify different coverages employed by the Buffalo Bills, but he ignored the fact that Stidham is basically a statue in the pocket.
Stidham will have to identify analogous coverages from the New England Patriots, but Nix has improved tremendously as sliding in the pocket, stepping up or doing a modified roll-outs. No one really knows if Stidham can show enough mobility to avoid sacks that would put the backup quarterback into long-yardage situations, and that’s where turnovers will happen with the backup quarterback.
Receiver Courtland Sutton vs cornerback Christian Gonzalez
The Bills had success taking Sutton completely out of the game, and it was only well into the third quarter when the Bronco’s big possession receiver finally emerged. He made several big catches that were important in late drives, and Sutton’s ability to move the chains is a big part of Denver’s offense when it’s really humming.
Will New England use star cornerback Christian Gonzalez to take Sutton out of the game? It feels likely given the array of potential matchups here. Gonzalez wasn’t used to take any of the Houston Texans’ receivers out of the game in last week’s Patriots win over the Texans, which made sense given the absence of primary receiver Nico Collins. If he does stick to Sutton in this one, it will be interesting to see how Payton responds.
Denver’s running game vs New England’s interior linemen
This might be the biggest matchup of all, actually. The Broncos have been winning without a running game for weeks now, but both running back J.K. Dobbins and center Luke Wattenberg may be returning from injuries.
This would help a lot, but they’ll still have a lot on their plate. Patriots' interior linemen Milton Williams and Christian Barmore have been able to shut down opposing running games, and they did it against Houston, limiting the Texans to just 48 yards on 22 carries. If Denver can’t run the ball between the tackles, Stidham will be looking at some of the same issues that plagued quarterback C.J. Stroud in Houston’s 28-16 loss last week.