There are a lot of reasons the Denver Broncos could win the Super Bowl. They’ve got an elite defense, a future Hall of Fame coach, and that all-important first-round bye that will keep them at home for both their first playoff game and the followup if they win.
The biggest reason, however, is something we’ve already seen during the season. It’s a Bo Nix hot streak, and as streaky as Nix has been, there’s no real reason to rule it out.
Austin Mock of The Athletic recently talked this topic for every playoff team, and Nix playing like a top ten quarterback was his reason why the Broncos will go all the way. Mock also provided a reason why Denver won’t, and his logic there was even more fascinating.
Nix’s regular season stats were unimpressive, to say the least. He was ranked 11th in the league if you go by his EPA/drop back rate, according to Mock, but his drop back success rate was just 29th, which puts him in the company of quarterbacks like Justin Fields and Tua Tagovailoa.
But Nix is a force to be reckoned with when he gets hot, and that’s what Broncos fans have to be hoping for in the postseason. The weapons are there—receiver Courtland Sutton is reliable when it comes to moving the chains, and he offers size in the red zone. Recivers Troy Franklin, Pat Bryant and Marvin Mims Jr. have shown the ability to make big plays, and Nix is just as dangerous when he escapes from the pocket.
Nix also tends to play up or down to his competition, and it’s time for him to elevate. Coach Sean Payton has spent the last couple of weeks against inferior competition trying to establish the running game, but it really hasn’t happened.
Will Payton change course and go bombs-away in the playoffs? It’s not a bad strategy—the Broncos defense can erase turnover mistakes, and it’s fairly clear at this point that Payton’s version of ground-and-pound isn’t going to get it done.
But Denver’s offensive line excels when it comes to protecting Nix, and he can play inspired football when the Broncos are playing fast and making quick reads. That’s Denvers best formula to dominate, especially given the considerable home-field advantage the Broncos have. Sitting back and playing conservative isn’t going to get it done against quarterbacks like Trevor Lawrence and Josh Allen, so it’s time to challenge Nix on the ultimate stage.