The Denver Broncos need playmakers, and they also need a big running back who can run between the tackles. Last season’s solution, running back J.K. Dobbins, is currently a free agent coming off a serious foot injury, so a lot of names are being floated as his possible replacement.
Ryan Smith of Pro Football Focus floated one in his recent piece that asked the question of whether each team could attack their biggest need via free agency or the draft. The name he came up with was running back Rico Dowdle of the Carolina Panthers, so let’s take a look at what Dowdle brings to the table and see if he might be the solution.
Dowdle’s backstory is admirable. He started his career as a fill-inn for the Dallas Cowboys, and when he got his shot he became a thousand-yard rusher, running for 1,079 yards on 253 carried to go with two touchdowns.
Dowdle wanted to get paid, but the Cowboys didn’t want to go there, so he moved on to Carolina on a one-year deal for approximately $3 million that was worth up to $6.25 million in incentives. He bet on himself and won, duplicating those same numbers with the Panthers, so now he’s looking to get paid again.
Dowdle is now considered an above-running back, and that’s actually part of the problem he poses. He’s solid, and as Smith noted, he forced 79 missed tackles while averaging 3.21 yards after contact per attempt during his last two seasons.
But he’s not a game-breaker, so he doesn’t fulfill that need for Denver. Smith’s theory is that he would allow smaller running back RJ Harvey to stay fresh for third downs, which would give the Broncos an inside-outside tandem.
Money is part of the problem here. Coach Sean Payton tried this back with the New Orleans Saints with the running back tandem of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, and while Ingram was solid and reliable, he consistently underperformed his contracts on a near-annual basis.
The Broncos don’t need solid, especially via free agency. They’d almost certainly end up having to pay Dowdle market value or more, and as impressive as his story has been, he’s just not worth it. It’s important to remember that Carolina’s offense had the same problem—they need more playmakers, which is why they’ll probably pass on paying Dowdle.
There will be other running backs available, and they’ll offer better value, maybe even with some game-breaking potential to go with it. Dowdle could be a viable solution for a lot of teams, but it’s hard to imagine the Broncos being one of them.