Struggling offenses collide for the AFC North lead as red zone efficiency and third-down failures threaten to derail both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night Football.
Week 4 arrives with all four teams in the AFC North sitting at 2-1 and it's the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers who will square off on Thursday Night Football for a chance to temporarily claim first place in the division.
These games tend to be very competitive and in a sport that is so often won in the margins, a few key moments could be the difference between either team winning. With that in mind, here are three stats that could decide the game.
1) Red Zone Success Rate
Funny enough, the Browns and Steelers both enter this game near the bottom of the league in red zone efficiency aka the number of trips to the red zone that end in touchdowns.
Cleveland currently ranks 28th in that category, scoring touchdowns on just 37.5% of its trips to the red zone. The Steelers are just one spot behind, with a 33.3% red zone efficiency rating. In a battle of teams that struggle to find the end zone from the red area, the team that bucks that trend the best on Thursday could very well walk out of Huntington Bank Field 3-1.
2) 3rd Down Conversion Rate
Similarly, the Browns and Steelers are also two of the worst teams in the league when it comes to converting third downs. Cleveland has converted just 30.6% of its third downs through the first three weeks of the season, a figure that ranks 30th in the NFL. Pittsburgh isn't much better on third down with a 32.4% conversion percentage. That ranks one spot higher as 29th overall.
One main reasons the two teams have struggled on third down is that they haven't necessarily stayed ahead of the sticks on first and second down. The Browns are tied for 13th in third-and-long (seven yards or more) attempts with 19. The Steelers have only faced 12 third-and-long situations, but they've faced the second-most third-and-medium attempts (between four and six yards) with 15.
The team that stays ahead of the sticks best is likely to win this matchup.
3) Explosive Plays
One or two explosive plays can often be the one or two moments that flip a game one way or another. In the NFL an explosive play is usually defined as a run play that gains 10 yards or more or a pass play that gains 20 or more yards.
The Browns have done a relatively good job limiting explosives over the last two weeks. Week 1 in Jacksonville was obviously the anomaly, where they yielded four explosive pass plays and five explosive run plays. In Week 2, the Buccaneers registered four explosive runs and just three explosive passes. Those figures were exactly the same for Carolina this past weekend.
As for the Steelers, they kept the Falcons explosive plays to a minimum in Week 1, with just one qualifying run and three passes. That was not the case against the Patriots in Week 2, where Pittsburgh surrendered six runs of 10+ yards and four passes of 20+ yards, including one 50-yard play. In Week 3, it allowed four explosive runs and five explosive passes. Limiting explosives will be critical int his game.
