DVOA projections place Cleveland near the league basement as a massive roster overhaul and the stunning Myles Garrett trade signal a long-term rebuild prioritized over immediate wins.
As the Cleveland Browns begin training camp, the odds makers in Las Vegas aren't giving them much of a chance to win many games this season.
Many of the most prominent betting sites have settled on 5.5 to 6.5 wins for Cleveland this fall. The analytics tell a similar story.
Based on the DVOA projections for 2026, the Browns' playoff chances are among the worst in the entire NFL, settling in around 6.4%. Slightly below the New York Jets and New Orleans Saints. Only one team has worse odds, in the Arizona Cardinals, who aren't even listed.
Here's a little background on FTN's DVOA formula to explain how they arrived at the figure.
DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.
Essentially, it looks at all the factors and situations that make up each team to project results and success.
For Cleveland, These low expectations are par for the course given the team's status a young team in the middle of a rebuild. The franchise saw plenty of turnover this offseason with General Manager Andrew Berry completely overhauling the offensive line.
That feat was complete when he drafted Utah prospect Spencer Fano to be the team's new starting left tackle. He went on to add several other key rookies in the draft, including wide receivers KC Conception and Denzel Boston, who are expected to make an immediate impact.
The most prominent move, of course, came when the calendar flipped to June and he sent superstar edge rusher Myles Garrett to the Los Angeles Rams for three future picks and rising star Jared Verse. That trade seemingly signaled to everyone that winning in 2026 is not the No. 1 priority for the Browns, something Vegas has certainly leaned into.
Cleveland's overall inexperience is a factor here, as well. Given the fact that the team's core is now largely made up of many second- and potentially first-year players, it has a lot to prove.
Berry has continued to say throughout the offseason that just because the Browns are young it doesn't mean they can't be competitive. They'll try to prove him right when the season kicks off in mid-September.
In the meantime, training camp will serve as a massive opportunity for new head coach Todd Monken to set a tone for what type of season Cleveland will have.
