When you play the Buffalo Bills, the X Factor always is a 6-5, 237-pound quarterback on whom the team’s fortunes rise and fall week to week. That is the burden that Josh Allen carries as the focal point of one of the league’s top offenses – and the primary challenge the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face Sunday.
If you can stop or slow down Allen, chances for a successful outcome increase substantially – just as the Miami Dolphins proved last week in their 30-13 demolition of the Bills.
It’s not that the eight-year veteran didn’t have some statistical success, completing 28 of 40 passes for 306 yards, a pair of interceptions against one interceptions (and scrambling four times for 31 yards); it’s that the Bills defense could not stop Miami’s running attack and forced three takeaways in Dolphin territory, paving the way to a 16-0 halftime lead that knocked Allen off his game early.
That said, the Bucs take nothing for granted when Allen, perennially one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks, is concerned. He makes plays with his strong right arm – with such capable targets as Khalil Shakir (45 catches, 457 yards and three touchdowns, Keon Coleman (32 catches, 330 yards, four TDs) and Dalton Kincaid (29 catches, 448 yards and four scores.
He has at his disposal a premiere running back in James Cook, already on the verge of a 1,000-yard rushing season with 116 carries for 920 yards and seven touchdowns. And Allen has proved plenty elusive himself, running for 311 yards – including a 40-yard scamper – and five touchdowns of his own.
"(It’s) the same issue as all the other running quarterbacks,” said Bucs head coach Todd Bowles. “He has a strong arm. He doesn't just beat you with his feet – he'll beat you with his arm as well. (He is a) very smart quarterback, (and he) knows the offense inside-out. … Once you get a hold of him, he's hard to bring down – that is where the problem comes. So, we have to make sure we get to the ball.”
““He’s a big guy and you’ve got to wrap him up,” Bowles added. “Then you’ve got to try to get him to the ground. Even with you hanging on him, he can still throw the football. So, it’s going to be important that we try to rally and get as many people to the ball as possible and not let him out of the pocket and try to make it hard for him.”
Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield took a playful jab at his counterpart and friend early in the week: "I have to walkie-talkie to him because he's so damn tall... So, I can't really have a face-to-face conversation with him. In Buffalo, it's cold and it's rainy, (so) even though he's 6-feet-10, his hands are small, so he better wear his gloves."
Of course, Mayfield, like all of his Tampa Bay teammates, respect not only Allen’s game-changing abilities with his arm and legs.
"I think the way he uses his legs … plays a big factor," said safety Tykee Smith. “(We are) just trying to contain him and then do as much as possible to eliminate explosive plays and then being able to stop James Cook.”
The fourth-year pro, carrying on the legacy of older brother Dalvin Cook, whose Pro Bowl career has been cut short by a chronic shoulder injury, is a constant big-gain threat. He led the NFL with rushing touchdowns last year in his second consecutive 1,000-yard season. And through nine games, Cook stands second in the league behind the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor in per-game rushing average of 102.2 yards.
“He’s dangerous – very dangerous,” said Bowles. “He can do a lot of things running and catching the football. if you’re a half-step late, he’s going to take it to the house.”
Cook gained only 53 yards against Miami but is always a threat. @ Julius BrentsOn the flip side, Buffalo’s run defense is ranked 30th of 32 teams, yielding an average of 147.6 rushing yards per game, as well as 30th in yards allowed per carry (5.47).
That is good news for Mayfield, who has been limited in his scrambles for key yardage in recent weeks, and the tandem of Raachad White and Sean Tucker. With tailback Bucky Irving – the Bucs’ answer to Cook still sidelined by a shoulder injury – White and Tucker have a chance to repeat or exceed their success from last Sunday against New England’s tough run defense.
Overall, however, the Bills’ defense is 14th in yards allowed and 11th in points allowed and has yielded just 170 yards per game through the game. That could pose a test for Mayfield, who has averaged 243 passing yards per game, along with his 16 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
"(They’re) a very well-coached team,” he said. “(Head coach) Sean McDermott is somebody that is one of the best defensive minds in football. (He) knows your tendencies, can really call out plays from the sidelines, can recognize formations, personnel and all of that. He coaches those defensive backs really well on how to show you one look and give you another [and] not giving anything away. They've been dealing with injuries up front, so we know how that goes.
“(The) secondary as a whole has been playing really well. It starts with the safeties, but also their linebackers have been able to really help out in pass coverage. A lot of it, they are forcing the quarterbacks to get the ball out on time and early sometimes. “(They’re) just a sound defense, and (when) you go on the road for us, we have to be on the same page (and) communicate well in a great environment. We went up there two years ago, so (we can) handle the noise and be able to execute our plan."
The Bucs will be without guard Ben Bredeson, who injured his hamstring early against the Patriots, but having standout guard Luke Goedeke back for a second straight week will certainly help. Goedeke is braced for a battle with veteran defensive end Joey Bosa, one of the game’s key matchups.
But the bigger picture is what this game means to the Bucs and Bills. Each are 6-3 and coming off disappointing defeats. Tampa Bay faces a second straight challenging road game next Sunday in Los Angeles against the 7-2 Rams, hoping to tighten its grip on the NFC South lead but also re-establish momentum for a deeper postseason run. And the Bills are in danger of losing valuable ground to New England, which improved to 9-2 in the AFC East with a 27-14 pounding of the New York Jets on Thursday night.
How much does Bowles read into the Bills’ poor performance last week?
“You don’t take much out of it,” he said. “We expect to see the best version of Buffalo. They’ve won the division so many times in a row. They got a great quarterback. They got a great team. Sean (McDermott) does a great job with those guys. We’re trying to bounce back and they’re trying to bounce back. So, it should be a hard-fought game.”