Sep 23, 2026 11:37 AM

One analyst believes the Bucs are already regretting signing Baker Mayfield to his lucrative contract extension. Should they be?

Baker Mayfield got the contract extension he was looking for.

Now he has to be the quarterback the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are looking for.

As Mayfield and the Bucs were in a very public contract dispute, there was plenty of debate about whether or not he deserved to be paid in line with some of the other highest-paid QBs in the league.

Once Mayfield signed his three-year, $165 million extension, the debate became whether or not he would live up to it.

Two games into the season, and Mayfield certainly has not.

Small sample size? Sure. But this is the NFL, where first-round picks are deemed busts after one game, calls for a head coach to be fired become deafening after two, and a team's entire season is thought to be determined based on whether it starts 1-0 or 0-1.

Damien Harris of CBS Sports bluntly said Mayfield isn't worth the amount of money he signed for, calling him too inconsistent to be trusted.

Mayfield's defenders also have plenty of ammunition to dismiss his poor start to the season. 

Tampa has had four offensive coordinators in Mayfield's four seasons with the team. The offensive line, expected to be one of the NFL's best, hasn't come close to meeting those expectations.

How much does Mayfield, and the entire offense, miss Mike Evans? 

While those could all be legitimate reasons for his slow start, Mayfield is now paid like a top quarterback, and he is being counted on to rise above any challenges he faces. That comes with the territory of earning the same yearly salary as guys like Josh Allen and Joe Burrow.

How is the organization feeling about the surprising decision it made to come back to the negotiating table right before the season started with an offer that met all of Mayfield's demands?

Ben Solak of ESPN believes that the Bucs are experiencing buyer's remorse. In his article detailing seven different things he thinks about the NFL heading into Week 3, Solak begins by saying he thinks Tampa is already regretting Mayfield's new contract.

Solak Believes Deal Was Unnecessary

Solak believes the Bucs giving in to Mayfield before this season was both risky and unnecessary. He points out that Mayfield also struggled last year, not just in these past two games.

While Solak thinks that Mayfield's down 2025 campaign could very well have been caused by his own injuries and the injuries to most of Tampa's offense, the Bucs could have decided what to do with him after seeing how he played with everyone healthy this year.

Solak believes that even if Mayfield played great in 2026, it's likely that he wouldn't have demanded much more than he got in his deal, so why not wait to see what happens?

"Through two weeks, Mayfield is 29th among 32 quarterbacks in EPA per dropback and 27th in success rate. Of course, two-game samples are useless, so let's add last season. Since the start of 2025, Mayfield is 24th among 32 quarterbacks in EPA per dropback and 25th in success rate.

"But last season was a down year. Mayfield played through a strained knee that he suffered in Week 2 and endured shoulder pain (non-throwing side) after a big hit in Week 12. His 2025 offensive coordinator, Josh Grizzard, was fired at the end of the season. So, let's throw in 2024 as well. Since the start of that season, Mayfield's career year with offensive coordinator Liam Coen, Mayfield is 13th in EPA per dropback and 13th in success rate. There he is, the guy the Bucs paid. We just had to go back a couple of seasons to find him.

"This is why the Buccaneers might regret that Mayfield deal. Not because his bad play through two games is written in stone, but because they could have collected a season's worth of additional data to inform their contract decision, and at little cost. What was Mayfield going to demand if he had a good year? Maybe $60 million instead of $55 million? Actual guarantees in 2029?"

Solak also worries about how well Mayfield's play will age as his athleticism starts to decrease. He does acknowledge that the Bucs likely wouldn't have had a better alternative, but believes they should have waited out this season before making such a huge financial commitment. 

"These are peanut problems compared with the larger issue: Mayfield is a late-career breakout who relies heavily on his athleticism and accordingly is on a shorter time horizon than most quarterbacks over 30. He also plays an inherently erratic style, and Robinson has had little success tamping that down through two weeks. I enjoy when Mayfield is at his best and look forward to seeing it again, but paying for peaks makes the valleys difficult to endure. The Buccaneers likely never had a better alternative than paying Mayfield a sizable veteran contract, but I sure would have liked to turn every stone before I consigned myself to that path."

Final Thoughts

Solak's points are fair, and the long-term concerns about Mayfield are real.

However, in the NFL, if you have a franchise quarterback, it is usually in a team's best interest not to let him get to free agency. 

Signing Mayfield to an extension was the only decision the Bucs could have made, even if it came with risks. After inking Vita Vea to his own lucrative extension, Tampa was committed to winning in the short-term.

Two games aren't a big enough sample size for the team to regret the deal. However, a season that goes off the rails quickly, as Tampa's is in danger of doing if Mayfield doesn't start playing better very quickly, might lead to the regret Solak is talking about.

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