Baker Mayfield’s expiring contract and Todd Bowles’ murky future take center stage as Tampa Bay's 2026 season will determine if the team starts a rebuild following last year’s late-season collapse.
With training camp starting in less than two weeks, several top storylines for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' 2026 season have already started taking shape.
After last season's collapse, which saw the Bucs limp to an 8-9 record after starting 6-2, leaving Tampa out of the playoffs, the team has an enormous amount of pressure on it this year.
There are both players and coaches who are heading into 2026 with their futures in Tampa on the line. Another disappointing year may lead to a rebuild of sorts. The team could look very different in 2027, both on the field and on the sidelines.
In his NFC South training camp preview, Around the NFL writer Nick Shook picks his top 3 storylines for the Bucs as we approach the final stretch of the offseason. A great read, it provides insight not only into the Bucs, but also their three division rivals.
Let's see what Shook believes are the key issues hanging over the Bucs in 2026.
1. Mayfield Entering Pivotal Season
Whether Mayfield's future lies in Tampa or not has been in focus all offseason. He is entering the season on the last year of the three-year, $100 million contract signed in 2024.
Mayfield has jump-started his career with the Bucs, but his self-imposed deadline of the beginning of the camp to reach an extension is closing in. The Bucs seem to be in no rush to lock up their QB long-term, and the chance Mayfield plays out the season without a new contract grows by the day.
Shook reminds us all that Mayfield can be a very "streaky" quarterback and is looking to rebound from a bit of a down season, one which saw the Bucs' offense decimated by injury.
"He's electrifying when at his best and can propel the Buccaneers toward great success, but he also struggles to get out of his own way at times. In 2025, Mayfield started white hot, leading Tampa Bay to a 6-2 start and pushing the team into the national conversation as a possible Super Bowl contender. Then injuries struck, sending Mayfield into a stretch of struggles that coincided with roster losses elsewhere and resulted in a pile of defeats and a postseason spent at home. For the first time since 2022, he finished with fewer than 4,000 passing yards."
If Mayfield plays the season without agreeing on an extension, he stands to gain (or lose) millions of dollars depending on how he plays.
"Should things go well, Mayfield will remain the Bucs' franchise quarterback for the foreseeable future. But if he encounters more struggles, it could cost him millions and inspire changes beyond his control that drastically change the landscape in Tampa."
2. Bowles' Seat Is Warm
That may be putting it lightly. Reports have suggested that head coach Todd Bowles is firmly on the hot seat in 2026. Another season that ends without a playoff berth will likely seal his fate.
"If the Bucs struggle like they did last season -- with Bowles' defense finishing 20th in points allowed -- he'll likely be out of a job and Tampa Bay will be facing a potentially significant shift in identity for the first time since Tom Brady arrived in 2020."
Bowles must prove to the organization that they made the right decision by keeping him after last year's collapse. If the Bucs struggle out of the gate, he may not make it through the season.
3. Does Tampa Have Enough On Defense To Win?
That's a question nobody should ever have to ask about a team with a defensive-minded coach like Bowles. But, as Shook notes, Tampa has lost its identity as a defensive powerhouse over the last few seasons.
For its part, the team made several high-profile additions to its defense this offseason, and Bowles has no excuses if the defense is the Bucs' weak link.
"Despite being led by a defensive-minded head coach, Bowles' Buccaneers became an offense-first team over the last few seasons. As Mayfield powered an explosive attack, Bowles' units proved average -- at best -- finishing 23rd, 18th and 19th in total yards allowed over the last three seasons. The Bucs haven't landed inside the top 10 since 2022, Bowles' first season as head coach."
Final Thoughts
There aren't many teams with as much on the line in 2026 as the Bucs. The franchise has found itself stuck in NFL purgatory the last couple of years, being good but never great, and how the upcoming season plays out will determine the direction it takes for the future.
The Bucs are talented enough not only to make the playoffs, but also to do some damage once they get there. Anything short of that should be considered a failure, and massive changes will likely follow.
Will Bowles and his players rise to the challenge? Or will they crack under the pressure like last year?
We will find out soon enough.
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