Future decisions for the Buccaneers quarterback hinge on his performance. Could Tampa Bay draft his successor?
2026 is set to be a make-or-break year for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The team is coming off an epic collapse in which it lost seven of its last nine games -- four to losing teams -- and somehow lost an NFC South where nobody finished with a winning record.
If the Bucs don't reclaim the division title in 2026, a lot of change is likely.
Two such changes, if things go awry again?
- Todd Bowles losing his job as head coach; and
- Baker Mayfield losing his job as Bucs quarterback.
Mayfield, who turns 31 in April, restructured his contract in 2024 to where he's getting $100 million over three years, with $80 million of that guaranteed.
In just three seasons, Mayfield has already become one of the top seven QBs in franchise history in passing yards (with 12,237); next season, the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft will likely surpass Doug Williams (12,648), Trent Dilfer (12,969), and Josh Freeman (13,534) in all-time passing yards. Mayfield has thrown more touchdown passes as a Buccaneer (95) than all but Tom Brady (108) and Jameis Winston (121).
With the help of offensive coordinators Dave Canales (2023) and Liam Coen (2024), Mayfield went from a guy the Cleveland Browns and Carolina Panthers kicked to the curb to one of the NFL's best passers.
Then 2025 happened, and Mayfield's erratic campaign prompted questions about whether he would remain a Buccaneer beyond 2026.
When speaking with media at the NFL combine in Indianapolis on Tuesday, Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht told reporters that "everything's on the table" as far as Mayfield is concerned.
"[O]ur plans revolve around Baker in the future, so I don’t think anybody wants to see Baker leave the organization," Licht said. "We know everything we need to know about Baker, being with him for three years, and everything is positive. He’s tough as hell, a great leader. No timeline, but all plans revolve around Baker."
Simply put, as Mayfield goes, so do the Bucs.
When Mayfield played well (16 TDs, two interceptions through the first nine games), the Bucs did too (6-3).
When Mayfield struggled (10 TDs, nine INTs over the final eight games), so did the Bucs (2-6).
It remains to be seen whether the Buccaneers will extend Mayfield during this offseason. Mayfield was fantastic for the Bucs in 2023 and 2024 (69 total TDs, 26 INTs), but hasn't been consistent enough throughout his career to warrant a long-term extension at this time. Mayfield's price range would likely be between $30 million and $40 million, and the Bucs have too many holes on the roster, especially on defense, to justify spending that kind of money on a quarterback.
There's a case to be made that the Bucs should use this year's draft to prepare for life without Mayfield.
Now, nobody is suggesting that Tampa take a QB in the first round. But later on, if somebody who makes sense is available, it could be an option.
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