Somebody has to win the NFC South this season.

Last year, none of the four teams in the division were able to achieve a winning record. The Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished in a three-way tie atop the standings with an 8-9 record, with the Panthers taking the crown on tiebreakers.

The division isn't expected to be much better this year. However, the Bucs, who had to collapse last season with a 2-7 finish to wind up in the tie, have made several improvements this offseason in an effort to reclaim their top spot.

The defense looks much better on paper, with free agents like Alex Anzalone, Al-Quadin Muhammad, and A'Shawn Robinson all set for big roles. The Bucs are also returning defensive tackle Calijah Kancey, who missed weeks 3-17 a year ago with a torn pectoral muscle, and 2025 fourth-round pick David Walker, who missed his entire rookie season with a torn ACL.

Walker has looked outstanding throughout training camp while Kancey was one of the best young DTs in the league before his injury, and has been called the team's X-factor this season.

The draft also brought in immediate reinforcements, with Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite Rueben Bain Jr. looking like a future star, and second-round linebacker Josiah Trotter also earning a Week 1 starting job.

On paper, the Bucs look like the most talented team in the division, aided by having by far the best quarterback in the NFC South, Baker Mayfield, fresh off signing a huge contract extension with the club, and the best offensive line by a mile.

Bill Barnwell of ESPN agrees. Sort of.

In his article predicting the 14 playoff teams for this season, Barnwell picked the Bucs to win the NFC South. However, he admits his pick was made because of his low expectations of the other three teams rather than believing the Bucs are actually good.

While he may not think the Bucs are all that good, Barnwell does give them credit for having the best offensive and defensive lines in the division. 

He also thinks the team's special teams, a weakness last year, will be much improved under new coordinator Danny Smith.

"I'm not sure any of the four teams in the NFC South should be huge favorites, but somebody has to win it. I'll lean toward the Buccaneers, who saw their running game deteriorate last season as they battled injuries to both their lead back (Bucky Irving) and much of their offensive line. Baker Mayfield was able to pull out games with fourth-quarter magic early in the season, but the offense stagnated as the year went along. Tampa also had some of the worst special teams in the league, which should hopefully be alleviated by the addition of legendary Steelers special teams coach Danny Smith.

"While the Bucs shed talent in losing veteran standouts Mike Evans and Jamel Dean this offseason, they were able to retain Vita Vea and should be the best team in the division along the offensive and defensive lines. Mayfield, having finally agreed to terms Tuesday on the long-term contract he sought, should still have enough in the way of playmaking talent to live up to the new deal.

"And in reality, this might be more about process of elimination than anything else. I've already laid out my concerns about an injury-hit Panthers team. The Saints were two games off the pace in 2025 and were carried to six wins by a defense that has lost three key players in Demario Davis, Alontae Taylor and Bryan Bresee. And the Falcons don't appear to have a solution they feel good about at quarterback, while their 2025 first-round picks on the edge are either out for the year (Jalon Walker) or suspended for half the season (James Pearce Jr.). I don't feel great about the Bucs, but I feel worse about everyone else."

Barnwell doesn't even mention the injury to Saints first-round pick, Jordyn Tyson. The talented wide receiver is starting the season on IR-Return and will miss at least the first four games.

Barnwell is right to pick the Bucs as division favorites, though I think the team will be better than he does.

I think Tampa is clearly the most talented team in the NFC South. However, the same was true last season, and we all know how that ended.

With better health, which shouldn't be difficult to achieve, I think the Bucs can not only win their division, but possibly go on a run in the playoffs.

They just have to get there first.