Despite adding several free agents and a stellar rookie class, expectations for the Bucs remain tempered, with a group of NFL executives ranking Tampa towards the bottom of the NFC.
Until the Tampa Bay Buccaneers start winning games, plenty of people will continue to doubt them.
Last year's collapse is still fresh in everybody's mind, and despite having a talented, balanced roster, analysts have been approaching the Bucs with caution.
Tampa has consistently been ranked in the bottom half of NFL power rankings. The Bucs win total projection for this season is usually set around 8 or 8.5. Even after signing several impact free agents and drafting an exciting rookie class, including Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite Rueben Bain Jr., expectations for Tampa remain low.
Mike Sando of The Athletic surveyed six executives from around the NFL and had them rank all 16 teams in the NFC for the upcoming season. The execs not only ranked the teams, but they also placed them into one of four tiers.
"The six executives polled this week ranked teams 1-16 in each conference, under the condition of anonymity to allow them to speak freely. I also asked them to place each team into four buckets: Super Bowl contenders, division contenders, sub-.500 teams and likely top-10 pickers in the 2027 draft."
The Bucs' ranking is more proof that very few think the team is anywhere close to being a true contender. Tampa was ranked 10th out of the 16 teams in the conference. Their highest ranking was 9th, and one voter ranked the Bucs all the way down at 14th.
Running Game, Mayfield, And Secondary Top Concerns
The executives expressed a wide range of concerns about the Bucs, with the running game, Baker Mayfield, and the secondary all being mentioned.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Votes: 9-10-14-11-11-10 | Avg: 10.8 | Median: 10.5 | Vegas wins: 8.5 (T-9th-NFC)
Tier votes: Division contender: 3 | Sub-.500: 3
"The Buccaneers' streak of four consecutive NFC South titles ended last season.
"Only one of six voters has Tampa on top this year.
"'The big question is, what will the run game look like?' one voter said. 'The new coordinator (Zac Robinson) was in Atlanta when they struggled to marry the run and the pass. But they get a motivated Baker (Mayfield) in a contract year, and they have arguably one of the best offensive players in the division with Emeka (Egbuka), plus a ton of draft capital in the defense.'
"With Mayfield entering his fourth season in Tampa, his unsettled contract situation remains a leading storyline. One voter suggested Mayfield could be the type of quarterback everyone loves when things are going well, but not as much during tougher times. Whatever the case, a good season would put pressure on the Bucs to step up.
"'Defensively, they should be more physical up front, adding A'Shawn (Robinson), Rueben Bain, (Josiah) Trotter in the front seven," another voter said. "(Keionte) Scott is a physical nickel built for (Todd) Bowles' blitzes. They'll need that rush to get home with questions in the secondary outside (Antoine) Winfield (Jr.).'
The Bucs won the division in 2022 with an 8-9 record, same as Carolina did last season.
"'I think all four of those teams are gonna be under .500 again,' one exec said. 'So, great, you're the best of the bad teams in your division.'"
Surprising Analysis
While it's not surprising to see the Bucs be ranked as a middling team closer to the bottom than the top, the reasons given for the low ranking are surprising.
The running game seems to be in much better shape this season. Not only did Tampa sign Kenneth Gainwell in free agency to form a dynamic running back duo with Bucky Irving, but the hiring of Robinson should also be a big help for the running game.
Robinson's offense is very similar to Liam Coen's. When Coen was Tampa's OC in 2024, the team had the fourth-best rushing attack in the NFL. It is strange to hear Robinson's hiring mentioned as a negative for the Bucs' ability to have a strong run game.
Also, many are expecting Mayfield to have a great season. He always plays his best when he needs to prove something. It is confusing to hear someone think he is one of the team's top concerns.
It is also mildly surprising to see the New Orleans Saints ranked above the Bucs. The Saints were a spot above Tampa, at ninth. The other two NFC South teams, the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons, were 11th and 15th.
Final Thoughts
No matter how anyone else views the Bucs, I believe they are clearly the best team in the NFC South. Tampa finished 8-9 last season after being devastated by injuries, especially on offense.
Despite losing two legendary players, Mike Evans and Lavonte David, as well as cornerback Jamel Dean, the Bucs are still a talented team. With better health, I believe they should easily surpass last year's win total and return to the top of the division.
It is understandable that so many people have doubts about the Bucs this season, and the team will have to get off to a fast start before anyone starts believing in them.
