The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have dug themselves a hole by starting the season with a 1-5 record, but with all their NFC South Division games ahead of them, the process of climbing out that hole starts this week.

Statistically, the Buccaneers still have a six to 14 percent chance of making the playoffs and a path to at least eight wins, which was good enough to win the division last season. Although Tampa Bay has just one victory through the first six weeks, they only trail division leader and Week 7 opponent Carolina Panthers (3-2) by 2.5 games in the standings. 

Sunday’s game at Bank of America Stadium will be the first division game for both teams this season and the Panthers are just one of the Buccaneers’ two wins in their last 11 games, dating back to last season. Including a 16-14 victory in last years’ regular season finale, Tampa Bay has won four of its last five against Carolina. 

Quarterback Baker Mayfield, who will be making his return from a dislocated thumb on his throwing hand, said the team is focused on the task at hand.

"Got to take it one game at a time," Mayfield said on Thursday. "And our opponent this week is the one leading the division, and so we got to take care of business this week and that's all that matters. It's going to be a 'one game at a time' mentality. But listen—our guys are ready for it, and we'll see what happens." 

While Mayfield is returning to the field and will likely be wearing a protective glove, Carolina quarterback Bryce Young has made the leap into NFL MVP contention early on. The former No. 1 overall pick (2023) was inconsistent through his first three seasons, but has blossomed in head coach Dave Canales’ offense.

Young is No. 6 in the NFL in passing yards (1,549), is tied for No. 7 in passing touchdowns (11) and is No. 1 in passing yards per game (309.8). He also has just two interceptions on 201 attempts and a passer rating of 98.5.

Last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan has picked up where he left off with 471 yards on 48 receptions and two touchdowns, and wide receiver Jalen Coker had six catches for 97 yards in his return against the Philadelphia Eagles after missing two games with injury. 

The Panthers are No. 1 in passing yards per game (295.6), No. 2 in total yards per game (404.4) and No. 4 in points, averaging 24.6 points per game.

Defensively, the Buccaneers have been up for the task. Tampa Bay is No. 2 in the NFL against the run (75.5 ypg), No. 4 in total yards allowed (299.5 ypg), and have 11 sacks and 30 quarterback hits. Despite giving up 23.0 ppg, Todd Bowles’ defense has eight turnovers on the season with six coming in the last three games and has kept each game close. 

In their five losses, opponents have averaged a margin of victory of just 5.4 points. 

In the Week 18 win Young threw for 266 yards and two touchdowns but the defense held the Panthers to just 285 total yards of offense, 1-of-8 on third down and forced three turnovers. Combined, Young completed 67 percent of his passes for 457 yards, four touchdowns and one interception in the two games against the Buccaneers. Young is 1-5 against Tampa Bay for his career.

The start of division play should be a welcome sight for the Buccaneers. In the last five seasons Tampa Bay has a .633 winning percentage against their NFC South rivals. 

The Panthers have a division winning percentage of .400 in the last five seasons, but lead the all-time series 25-26. Carolina comes into the game on a two-game winning streak and won its last home game against the Eagles. 

Carolina is 3.5-point favorites and the point total for the game is 44.5.