Can Tampa Bay overcome long odds and a massive quarterback contract to find Super Bowl LXI glory?
It was February 7, 2021, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were hosting Super Bowl LV against the Kansas City Chiefs. It was Tom Brady versus Patrick Mahomes. As the only team in NFL history to host the Super Bowl, the Bucs left it all on the field that night as Tampa Bay's defense held the Chiefs' offense to just three field goals and forced two Mahomes interceptions to win their second Super Bowl title in franchise history.
In the last hurrah for Brady, he went out in style, completing 72 percent of his passes and throwing three touchdown passes. Two of those scoring passes went to his former Patriots teammate Rob Gronkowski. Former LSU running back Leonard Fournette added a rushing touchdown as the Bucs throttled the Chiefs 31-9.
It was Brady’s seventh Super Bowl victory.
In the first predictions for next year's Super Bowl, released in the wake of Super Bowl LX by Draft Kings (and other sportsbooks), the Bucs are looking at +4000 odds to reach the big game in 2027.
What will it take for the Bucs to get back to the Super Bowl?
General manager Jason Licht will have to navigate free agency. Does he re-sign receiver Mike Evans? At age 32, Evans is a 12-year veteran who posted 1,000-plus-yard receiving seasons in 11 of his 12 years in the league. Last season, Evans only played in eight games and logged 368 receiving yards and three touchdowns, hampered by injuries and a concussion.
Licht could draft an offensive lineman and try it on finding a play-making, deep-threat replacement for Evans on the perimeter. Texas A&M’s KC Concepcion or Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson come to mind in that regard with the No. 15 overall pick.
Also, quarterback Baker Mayfield’s contact will weigh heavily on the franchise come 2027. At age 30, Mayfield represents a whopping $51.975 million salary cap hit to the team.
With a dead-cap hit hovering over $55 million, the Bucs cannot release Mayfield. So, they would have to mitigate this huge contract by either an extension or some kind of restructure. Mayfield stands to make $30 million guaranteed for the 2026 season.
But in the grand scheme of things, the Bucs could be just a couple of talented players away from being a contender. During the 2025 season, six of their nine losses were by six or fewer points.
Finally, there is head coach Todd Bowles. Is he the right coach to take the Bucs back to the Super Bowl? In four seasons with the Bucs, Bowles has coached the team to two winning seasons, a 9-8 record in 2023 and 10-7 in 2024.
Bowles coaching record in Tampa stands at 35-33, which translates to a .515 winning percentage. For his coaching career, including gigs with the Jets and Dolphins, Bowles has posted a dismal .452 winning percentage.
By comparison, former Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott was fired after the Bills playoff loss to the Broncos. McDermott was 98-50 (.662) with the Bills and led Buffalo to five consecutive AFC East championships and seven straight playoff appearances, but failed to reach the Super Bowl.
They seem to have the right guy at GM in Licht. Maybe it is time to make a coaching change and hire the kind of coach that can take the Bucs back to the Super Bowl.
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