Can the struggling Bucs overcome their recent meltdowns? A critical NFC South clash pits their battered offense against a surging Panthers team. Here is your betting guide to the game Sunday.
The Bucs (7-7) lost their second straight game by blowing a two-touchdown lead to a team with a losing record last Thursday night at Raymond James Stadium. The Panthers, seemingly with everything to play for in front of them, could not protect a 10-point lead vs. the New Orleans Saints in Week 15.
That's essentially why Tampa Bay, 1-5 in their last six games, after being walked-off by the Falcons in a gut-wrenching 29-28 loss in which the Bucs allowed 476 yards and 27 first downs, are (-3, -108) road favorite vs. Carolina (+3, -112) in a crucial NFC South matchup of 7-7 teams at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC Sunday.
The Bucs are -155 money line favorites, while the Panthers are listed at -130.
The over/under total is 45.5 (-110 o, -110 u) for the 1:00 p.m. (ET) kickoff on Fox Sports.
Tampa Bay, most NFL bettors would agree, is fortunate to even be in this position -- given their play in recent weeks. At one point 3-0 in the season and winners of six of their first eight games, the Bucs, offense, unlike early in the season, has not produced the same volume of big plays in key moments.
Even against the Falcons, a third-place team that arrived in Tampa Bay five games below .500, the Bucs defense, repeatedly beat underneath by Atlanta's intermediate passing game, failed to get off the field down the stretch as the Falcons and .. gulp, Kirk Cousins converted on a number of third and fourth down attempts.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield, an early-season MVP dark horse at around 30-1 after a strong start to the season, was sacked five times in the loss to the Falcons.
Mayfield, despite throwing for 277 yards and two touchdowns, also threw an interception early in the fourth quarter that sparked the Falcons rally from down 14 points.
On the positive side, receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillian all played together for the first time this season.
Evans, in his first game back after missing two months with a broken collarbone, had six receptions for 132 yards.
The Panthers, 5-12 just a season ago, are in position to win their first division title since 2015 thanks to a recent three-game winning streak, before the aforementioned loss to the Saints.
As of right now, Bucs TE Cade Otton, S Tykee Smith, LB SirVocea Dennis are listed as questionable. CB Zyon McCollum (hip) was placed on IR earlier this week, while Panthers DL Tershawn Wharton (hamstring) is questionable.
(*All betting numbers as per DraftKings Sportsbook. Please make sure to check your sportsbook of choice for updated NFL odds, betting lines and information.)
Tampa Bay, playing for the second time in four days last Thursday night, got caught in a tough spot against the Falcons.
How else to explain their inexplicable fourth quarter meltdown vs. Atlanta?
Mayfield has to be a bit better in his decision-making, most importantly in crucial situations of games. Additionally, head coach Todd Bowles must adjust during games to avoid being beaten like last week, when the Falcons repeatedly burned the Bucs by finding Kyle Pitts and Bijon Robinson down the stretch as Tampa Bay’s defense never bothered to abandon the soft zone they were in.
One thing that favors the Bucs here, is that Carolina, unlike the Falcons with Pitts and Robinson, doesn't possess the overall individual firepower on offense to take advantage of Tampa Bay’s defensive shortcomings, especially from the middle up to their very vulnerable secondary.
It’s also very telling, at least from a betting perspective, that the Bucs are not only still favored to win the NFC South, but mid-week road chalk in this spot — despite their recent slide.
Keep in mind: These two teams play in Tampa Bay on Jan. 4 in the regular season finale for both teams in a game that very well could decide who wins the NFC South.
Therefore, the Bucs are the right side on Sunday - even if the Panthers are 3-1 against the spread at home.
Fernie Ruano is a sports analyst and content creator in Miami, Florida. He has contributed to this story.