Can the struggling Bucs secure the NFC South title with two games left to play? Dive into the betting insights for this crucial AFC East matchup.
Not only will the NFC South title, once again, reside in Tampa, Florida, but the Bucs (7-8), currently -5.5 point road favorites against the Miami Dolphins (6-9) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida for a 1:00 p.m. (ET) kickoff on Fox Sports Sunday afternoon, will host a home playoff game on the second weekend of 2026.
It’s simple mathematics:
If Tampa Bay, on a three-game losing streak, wins their remaining two regular season games, the Bucs would secure their fifth straight NFC South title. Should the Bucs lose to the Dolphins, but beat Carolina in Week 18, Tampa Bay would win the division via (common opponents record) tiebreakers — with a 9-8 record.
A Carolina loss to Seattle — the Panthers are at around 7-point underdogs right now — combined with a Bucs win this Sunday would set up the loser-goes-home contest, next week.
But nothing is coming easy right now for the Bucs, 5-10 against the spread overall and winless in December after winning three straight games to start their 2025 season — as part of a 6-2 run in their first eight games.
The Bucs, who have failed to cover the spread in their last seven games, including four of five as favorites, are coming off a 23-20 loss to Carolina — 10 days after blowing a 14-point, fourth quarter lead against the third-place Atlanta Falcons and getting walked-off on a field goal, 29-28.
Tampa Bay, which has won its last seven games against opponents on a losing streak, lost 34-7 to the Los Angeles Rams in late-November.
The Dolphins, 7-8 against the spread and coming off a 45-21 home loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, have already benched QB Tua Tagovailoa and appear headed towards an off-season of massive changes, including at head coach.
Miami, 22nd in the NFL in scoring with 21.1 points per game, are led offensively by WR Jaylen Waddle who has a team-high 64 receptions with 910 yards and six touchdowns.
Miami has literally wasted a solid season from RB De’Von Achane, who has accumulated 1,726 yards from scrimmage, while providing the Dolphins with a slick dual-threat option.
Dec 21, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving (7) runs against Carolina Panthers safety Nick Scott (21) and linebacker Christian Rozeboom (56) during the first half at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn ImagesDefensively, Jordyn Brooks has a team-high 169 tackles (93 solo) through Week 16. Bradley Chubb has 6.5 sacks and could play a major role in the result of Sunday’s game — against a Bucs offensive line that has been anything but solid in recent weeks and has been injury riddled.
Tampa Bay, 3-5 on the road, is a -250 money line favorite, while the Dolphins, 4-4 at home, are +215.
The over/under total is 45 (o, -110, u -110), per DraftKings Sports Book.
Miami is 8-5-2 in over/under totals.
Note: Eight of the last 10 Sunday games at Hard Rock Stadium have gone over the points total.
Bucs LB Anthony Nelson is currently listed as questionable. DB Minkah Fitzpatrick is out for Miami.
For two teams going in similar directions, the Bucs, who have one less road win than the Dolphins do at home, are oddly very similar.
Tampa Bay has also failed to cover the betting line in its last three games, and Miami’s defense is comparable to that of the Bucs’, if not slightly better. There’s also the variable of the Bucs and Panthers playing for the NFC South title in Week 18.
That’s why, I would lean slightly towards the Bucs. Further, Tampa Bay WR Mike Evans should catch a touchdown pass - as he usually does against AFC East opponents.