Eye test and analytics agree: The Bucs' struggles place them near league bottom. Can Tampa Bay overcome Football Power Index predictions to salvage its season?
The eye test hasn't been kind to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lately, and as it turns out, advanced metrics aren't in love with the Bucs, either.
Following Sunday's three-point loss to the Carolina Panthers, which dropped Tampa below .500 and out of first place in the NFC South, ESPN's Football Power Index has the Bucs 19th among the league's 32 teams.
For some, this would be too low, but in fairness, ESPN's FPI isn't subjective.
For those wondering what FPI is, here's the definition, per ESPN's Stats & Information Group.
"At its core, NFL FPI is a prediction system for the NFL. Each team's FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency, as measured by expected points added per play, and that rating is the basis for FPI's game-level and season-level projections.
"In the preseason, FPI uses a number of predictive factors to project future team strength. The main component of preseason FPI is Vegas expectations; the expected win totals and money lines for each team are an accurate representation of predicted team strength and provide a strong baseline for teams entering the season.
"But relying solely on Vegas has its flaws. More information is needed to determine what percentage of a team's projected win total can be attributed to its offense, defense and special teams units -- the components that make up FPI."
Interestingly enough, the Bucs are still in front of the team they just lost to. Even though Carolina has a slightly better record (8-7 compared to 7-8), the Bucs have a sizable lead over the Panthers as far as FPI goes -- Tampa's FPI is -1.3 compared to Carolina's -4.0.
Tampa must win its last two regular-season games to win the NFC South and make the playoffs. The good news is that both games are winnable.
First, Tampa takes on a 6-9 Miami Dolphins team on the road. Per FPI, Miami is the second-worst team in the NFL.
Then, it's a rematch with Carolina -- this time at Raymond James Stadium.
The division is still winnable. But considering the Bucs have lost six of seven, and their only win was a three-pointer over the 3-12 Cardinals, Vegas, FPI analysts and maybe evens Bucs fans aren't too confident right now.