Oct 26, 2026 5:22 PM

A dominant road victory breathes life into Tampa Bay’s season, yet history and current percentages remain daunting as the Bucs navigate a wide-open and volatile NFC South race.

The odds are still against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs.

Only four teams in league history have made it to the playoffs after starting 1-5.

Only one has made the postseason after starting 0-4.

This year's Bucs team checks both boxes. With that said, they also just beat a first-place division rival on the road by 30 points, and wins like that are going to make people curious.

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The number of teams that have started 2-5 and made the postseason is still in the single digits, but Tampa's chances of making the playoffs are better now than they were Sunday morning.

The Bucs' odds to make it to the postseason stand at 22% per PlayoffStatus.com. Despite beating Carolina by 30 on the road, the Panthers still have considerably higher playoff odds at 45%.

The Atlanta Falcons also got a big win Sunday, becoming the first team this season to beat the San Francisco 49ers, who started 6-0.

Atlanta's playoff odds sit at 36%.

The New Orleans Saints fell to 2-5 with a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Paris, and thus have the lowest odds of anybody in the NFC South at 17%.

So the bad news is that the Bucs still don't have a good chance of making the playoffs, which could very well lead to the dismissal of coach Todd Bowles.

The good news is that, if there's a division where starting 2-5 could be rectified, the NFC South would be it. The fact that the division's top team just lost by 30 at home to a team that didn't even throw for 70 yards all day shows what type of mess the South is.

Even better for the Bucs is that five of their last 10 games are against divisional foes, starting this Sunday against the Falcons at home.

If the Bucs beat Atlanta, each team will have the same 3-5 record.

Carolina plays on the road against the Green Bay Packers Thursday night, so both Tampa and Atlanta will go into that matchup knowing how close a win would get them to first place.

Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints have another tough matchup against an AFC North team, hosting the surprising Cleveland Browns (5-2) while the Bucs are playing the Falcons.

For Bucs fans who don't feel better after reading all of this, here's one more thing to consider: Last season, Tampa started 6-2, and we all know how that turned out.

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