Back in January, Tampa Bay announced Todd Bowles would return as the head coach in 2026. That makes him the longest-tenured head coach for the Buccaneers since Jon Gruden, who was the field boss from 2002-2008. 

In his first three seasons Bowles delivered three consecutive NFC South division titles and had a winning percentage of .529 in the regular season.

Despite that success, the move to bring back Bowles has been met with some skepticism after the Buccaneers, who arguably had the most talented team in what many viewed as the weakest division in the NFL, did not qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 2019 and lost seven of their last nine games to end the 2025 season.

Tampa Bay management has said they brought Bowles back because of his proven track record, for organizational stability and that he has the support of the players.

Before last season Bowles also signed a contract extension through the 2028 season.

However, the 62-year-old has been a popular choice among pundits as one of the head coaches facing the most pressure to perform and is sitting on one of the hottest of seats heading into next season.

The question then becomes, whether Bowles gets an entire season to prove he is the right head coach to lead the team or whether the Buccaneers will make a regime change midseason?

The ideal scenario for both Bowles and management would be for the Buccaneers to win 11 games, regain the NFC South division crown and make a deep run in the playoffs.

This scenario justifies the extension and gives weight to the theory that 2025 was just a bump in the road.

If the Bucs don’t reach double-digits in the win column but manage to either win the division or qualify for the postseason for the fourth time in Bowles’ five years, his future will become more complicated.

Although Tampa Bay has played in the postseason three of the last four years, the Buccaneers are just 1-3 in the playoffs under Bowles.

While advancing to the playoffs once again would give Bowles a strong argument, his future with the team will likely come down to how many rounds the Bucs advance.

Although generally thought of as a move when a season has completely derailed, midseason head coaching changes have become more routine in recent years.

Since 2022, 11 coaches have been fired from their NFL teams with games remaining on the regular season schedule.

Of the teams that changed head coaches midseason since 2022, those teams fired their head coaches around Week 7, on average. 

Finding success immediately after a midseason head coaching change has also proven to be difficult in the last four seasons. Since 2022, teams that fired their coach midseason went 25-58 to finish the season after the firing.

Midseason firings are more common, but Tampa Bay is not an organization that has become known to pull the plug on a head coach early.

Of the 13 head coaches in Buccaneers’ history, only one has been let go during the season, Ray Perkins was dismissed in 1990 after a 5-8 start. After Perkins was let go, Tampa Bay didn’t have a winning season until 1997.

Most likely the organization will allow the season to play out before making the ultimate decision on Bowles’ future with the team.

But unlike other teams who have fired a head coach midseason and then continued to struggle, the Bucs might have an Ace up their sleeve.

In January, Tampa Bay hired former Atlanta Falcons’ offensive coordinator Zac Robinson for the same position in 2026 to revive a Buccaneers’ offense that was top-3 in the NFL as recently as 2024. The offense remains largely intact, including quarterback Baker Mayfield.

Robinson doesn’t have any head coaching experience in the NFL but he is a member of the Sean McVay coaching tree.

As recent history has shown, teams that have fired their head coach during the season waited until well into the schedule before making the change.

If the Buccaneers get off to a slow start in 2026, the pressure from outside the organization for a change will begin and continue to mount.

How many losses with Bowles as head coach, with a talented and experienced roster, and a potential head coaching candidate in Robinson, will be the tipping point for General Manager Jason Licht and company?

How long will the Bucs hold onto that Ace up their sleeve?

The Bucs might not have a history of making midseason head coaching changes, but history has a tendency to change.

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