The NFC South rarely stays predictable, and last season was proof of that.

The Carolina Panthers capitalized on a division-wide dip, grinding their way to eight wins and a division title while every team in the field, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers included, struggled to find consistency.

It wasn’t a run rooted in dominance. It was more about survival. That distinction matters and must be referenced as attention shifts to another regular-season campaign.

Let's say the Panthers were more opportunistic than overpowering, which is a real responsibility, the door is wide open for a shift at the top. Remember, the Buccaneers, despite dealing with injuries and inconsistency all year, and still matched Carolina's win total.

Now, with better health and a clearer sense of direction, Tampa Bay looks like the team best positioned to flip the script. Divisions aren't won in March, but based on everything we've seen, the Bucs have to be the favorites to secure the crown, right? 

Here are three reasons why that statement resonates.

Let’s be honest about how the Panthers got to where they were. Everything broke their way. The Atlanta Falcons couldn’t stabilize the quarterback position, while the Buccaneers were banged up, and the New Orleans Saints never found traction.

The Panthers took advantage, but they didn’t separate.

That’s a red flag more than a flex. Teams that win divisions without truly controlling them are usually the most vulnerable the following season.

Atlanta still has questions under center. How confident are you in Michael Penix and Tua Tagovailoa? Carolina isn’t exactly rock-solid there either. Questions continue to surround a still-developing Bryce Young.

In a division where quarterback play is shaky across the board, the team with the most stability, and the highest ceiling, immediately gains the edge. Tampa Bay fits that description far more than its rivals.

Every offseason, there’s a team people convince themselves can make a massive leap. The Saints might get that buzz, but the reality doesn’t back it up. This team has a long way to go before it's competitive.

This is a roster with holes, questions about long-term direction, and no clear indication that a turnaround is imminent. Fixing one or two issues won’t be enough. They need a more complete overhaul before they can seriously contend in the division again.

It’s not impossible, but it’s unlikely. And when you’re projecting a division race, you don’t bet on long shots to suddenly become reliable contenders. On any given Sunday any team can win, but no one is betting on double-digit wins or anything close to that this season.

At the end of the day, this division may come down to one simple truth. The Buccaneers have the best quarterback right now.

Baker Mayfield isn’t just a placeholder. He has proven he can lead, produce, and elevate an offense when things are working around him. Even more importantly, he should be healthier this season after battling through bumps and bruises a year ago.

That matters. A healthy, confident Mayfield gives Tampa Bay something no one else in the division can consistently claim: dependable quarterback play with upside.

There’s also something to be said for urgency. With Todd Bowles entering a make-or-break year, this is a team that knows what’s at stake. Players respond to that. Locker rooms rally around it, and when a team believes in its head coach, that added edge can show up in the margins that decide close games.

The bigger picture is hard to ignore. Tampa Bay doesn’t need a massive leap—they just need better health and slightly more consistency than the teams around them. That’s a far more realistic path than what the Panthers needed a year ago.

If the Buccaneers stay relatively healthy and Baker Mayfield delivers at the level he’s capable of, this won’t be a dramatic takeover. It’ll be a steady reclaiming of a division that’s very much up for grabs, and one Tampa Bay is better equipped to win.

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