Despite Loss, Buccaneers Still NFC South Favorites

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers aren't looking as good as they were a little more than a week ago.

It looked like the Bucs may be turning a corner, with convincing wins over a pair of division rivals: the Carolina Panthers (43-13 on the road) and the Atlanta Falcons (16-0 at home).

A win over the Chicago Bears on the road in a Sunday night setting would have put the Buccaneers in first place and in command of the NFC South.

Although Tampa certainly had its chances, generating five turnovers, the Bucs were on the wrong end of a pick-six themselves and lost, 27-24.

So what did this do to Tampa's playoff chances?

Well, it certainly didn't help.

But at the same time, the Bucs are still the favorites to take the NFC South per ESPN's playoff picture. The playoff picture has Tampa with a 64% chance to win the division, which is higher than Carolina (21%), the New Orleans Saints (11%) and Atlanta (6%).

So not only is Tampa the favorite to win the NFC South, but by this metric, it's a heavy favorite.

If Tampa is to make the playoffs, it will have to be through winning the division.

The Bucs' odds of earning a wild card berth are <1 percent according to ESPN.

Although Tampa and its fans will take a playoff berth after what happened last year. The Bucs lost seven of their last nine games to miss the playoffs despite nobody in the NFC South having a winning record.

It is hard to argue that, if the Bucs won the South, it would simply be because somebody had to.

The first-place team in the division, Carolina, has lost three in a row, including that 30-point laugher to Tampa Bay at home.

The Falcons, which are tied with the Bucs for last place at 3-6, just traded one of their best players, All-Pro safety Jessie Bates III, so they're looking toward the future.

The Saints lost to said Falcons team by 21 at home not too long ago, so it's hard to have too much confidence in New Orleans. 

Four of Tampa's last eight games are against NFC South opponents, so the Bucs are in control of their destiny.

If Tampa is to do what ESPN expects it to do, it will be the second team in league history to start 0-4 and make the playoffs, with the only other one being the 1992 San Diego Chargers.