Oct 21, 2026 8:21 PM
After a bleak 1-5 start, Tampa Bay faces a grueling path to redemption. Analyze the divisional showdowns and critical matchups that will determine if a miracle comeback remains possible.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in deep trouble.
Had the Bucs hung on and beaten the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday, there’d be some hope that the team could climb out of the 0-4 hole it dug itself.
However, the Steelers came back and won, and therefore, the Bucs are 1-5. Only four 1-5 teams in history have come back to win their division.
The good news for Tampa is that it didn’t take much to win the NFC South last season (which is why the Bucs not doing it was so frustrating), and the division doesn’t look much tougher this year.
The Carolina Panthers have been respectable at 3-2, but aside from them, the Atlanta Falcons (2-4) and New Orleans Saints (also 2-4) have been only marginally better than the Bucs.
Six of Tampa’s last 11 games are against division foes, so if there’s hope things can get better, that’s it.
Here’s a breakdown of which of those 11 games the Bucs should win, which ones they shouldn’t win and which ones could go either way.
GAMES THE BUCCANEERS SHOULD WIN
vs. Carolina (Nov. 30), Los Angeles Chargers (Dec. 6), New Orleans (Dec. 20), Atlanta (Nov. 1)
Predicting any of the other three NFC South teams to sweep the Bucs would be giving those teams too much credit, so I like the Bucs in each of their divisional home games.
The LA Chargers are one of the few teams with a worse record than Tampa, so the Bucs should win that one, too.
GAMES THE BUCCANEERS SHOULDN’T WIN
at Carolina (Oct. 25), at Chicago (Nov. 8), at Baltimore (Dec. 13)
The Panthers are too good to lose to the Bucs twice. With Caleb Williams back in the fold, the Chicago Bears are probably too good to lose to the Bucs once, especially at home. Same goes for the Baltimore Ravens, assuming Lamar Jackson is back by mid-December.
TOSSUPS
at. Detroit (Nov. 22), at Atlanta (TBD), at New Orleans (TBD), vs. Los Angeles Rams (TBD)
The Detroit Lions’ defense is something just about any team in the league can exploit, so I wouldn’t rule out a Bucs win there even if they come into the game 2-7, which I project they will.
Atlanta has shown flashes of brilliance and ineptitude, so it depends which Falcons team the Bucs get in the Georgia Dome.
Same goes with the Saints.
Coming into the season, most would have pegged the LA Rams to beat the Bucs and most everybody else. But the projected “dream team” just hasn’t come to fruition, and LA is 2-4.
So the Bucs have four games they should win, four that could go either way and three they should lose. We’ll see what happens.
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