Here are the biggest factors that will impact Sunday's game between the Chargers and Jaguars.
I'm pretty nervous about the Los Angeles Chargers' chances of winning tomorrow in Jacksonville against the Jaguars. Maybe it's that playoff game from three years ago that I get out of the shadow of, but this really feels like one of those games where one or both teams will have to play out of character for the Chargers to come home with a win.
Here's what I mean...
Chargers Strength: Momentum
Yeah, I'm one of those people that believes in momentum. The Chargers have won four of their last five games, the only loss coming to the best team in the NFL this season.
They are walking in the door with the belief and expectation that they're walking out with a win. That means something. Hopefully it means more than their prior poor performances in the early time slot.
Jaguars Strength: Turnovers
I wrote about this earlier this week, but turnovers are going to be the biggest factor in determining who is victorious on Sunday.
The Jaguars are quite good at forcing turnovers (they had forced 13 of them by Week 4), and turnovers have been an issue for the Chargers. In fact, last Sunday's win over the Pittsburgh Steelers was the first time the Chargers offense hadn't turned the ball over since their Week 1 win over the Kansas City Chiefs.
And for all the criticisms I could have for the Jaguars offense, being turnover prone definitely is not one of them.
Chargers Weakness: Field Position
I debated between this week's highlighted weakness being this or the running attack, but they're two sides of the same coin. With two injured running backs and two injured starting tackles, it's hard to consistently push forward on offense for the Chargers.
The average starting position for the offense ranks 27th in the NFL. The average starting position against them, as it would make sense that this would also be bad, is 24th in the NFL. Luckily for them, the Jaguars are good (not great) at winning the field position game.
Jaguars Weakness: The Passing Game
By "the passing game", I don't mean the Jacksonville Jaguars offense when it is throwing the ball. I mean the Jacksonville Jaguars have a very weak grip on the very idea of what a passing game is.
On offense, the Jaguars are 8th in pass attempts. That would make you think they're actually good at doing so! They're also, somehow, 19th in passing yards and 27th in passing touchdowns. That would make you think they're bad! They are also below-average at not throwing interceptions.
On defense, the Jaguars are......
Rubbing temples like a frustrated parent
Look, they're terrible. They're 28th in passing yards allowed and 30th in passing touchdowns allowed. They're 23rd in net yards per attempt allowed.
These are the type of numbers that are so bad they would sink any team's chances of making it into the playoffs. And yet, the Jaguars sit in a Wild Card spot for one very specific reason:
They're selling out for picks.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have played nine games so far this season and currently have thirteen interceptions. That's an average of about 1.5 interceptions per game. When you add in the 5 fumbles they've forced, it's an average of about 2 turnovers per game for the Jacksonville defense.
The good news is that they've only forced 3 turnovers in their last four games, so maybe their defensive scheme is being figured out by opposing offensive coordinators.