Patriots' weak schedule crumbles. Learn how Buffalo's blueprint and Chargers' desperation can dismantle New England's playoff hopes.
Welcome back to something I used to do a very long time ago. Before each Los Angeles Chargers playoff game, I already wrote a pessimistic post. These are not meant to be predictions as much as they're meant to tell the beginning of whichever story comes true. If the Chargers win, this will likely be why.
The New England Patriots are paper tigers. I am not 100% sure that I believe that, but I can probably tell you a story that would make you consider it.
Let's start with the schedule. Sure, the Patriots have done a ton of winning this season. Would you like to know how many of their wins have come against teams that are in the NFL Playoffs? The answer is two, an early season win against the Carolina Panthers before they figured out why they were and an early season win against the Buffalo Bills that evened out with a late season loss to the Bills.
So, while the Patriots might be impressive, they've by no means battle-tested. Beating the Jets and Dolphins twice doesn't help you to beat the Chargers in the NFL Playoffs. Beating the Bengals, Browns, Titans and Saints shouldn't move the needle for me any more than the Patriots Week 1 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders.
Also, I think it's possible that the Buffalo Bills provided a blueprint for how to beat the Patriots.
The Bills focused on shutting down big plays downfield and the Patriots passing attack, willing to concede on losing the battle in the trenches and in the ground game. For the first time this season, the Patriots finished with more rushing yards (246) than passing yards (139). The rushing TDs, of which they were four, accounted for 28 of the Patriots' 31 points in a losing effort.
Buffalo made a bet that, without an effective passing game, the Patriots would not be able to keep pace with their scoring and that bet turned out to be right. I do think there's a world in which the Chargers try to make the same bet.
Speaking of, the odds on this game (+3.5 LAC) seem to indicate that the smartest people in the business think that it is pretty much a coin flip in terms of the teams.
Maybe that's due to desperation. Often times, the team that wins in the playoffs is the team that is more desperate. The Chargers are holding onto the last hope of this group, which will become a lot more expensive when the offseason comes, before having to try another way.
The Patriots, meanwhile, are one of the youngest teams in the league and enjoying in Year 1 with Mike Vrabel. If you gave those in the franchise truth serum, I bet most of them would tell you that they expect to be back next year and the year after.
Sometimes, in freeing cold January games, what matters more than the stats and the history is whether the guys on your team are willing to give it every thing they've got to try and win one game. I think that describes this Chargers team, all year long but especially now, and that is why I'm hopeful about their odds.