Despite a playoff absence, the Chargers emerge as top-tier Super Bowl contenders, showcasing strong odds and AFC West dominance.
I don't bet on sports. Not that I never have, but I gave it up a long time ago.
I was pretty good at it, but I would take my winnings and turn it into more and more bets until I eventually lost it all (or got back to even) and walked away. I never gambled with much, but the process wasn't yielding positive results for my, so I decided to stop.
That being said, I do still pay attention to a number of different betting odds because I find them fascinating. Unlike punditry and hot takes, these sportsbooks actually lose money if their opinion is wrong. And they don't stick around very long if they're losing lots of money, so they tend to be pretty good at predictions.
That's why I took a peek at the Super Bowl XLI odds this morning, the day after Super Bowl XL. And what I found is that the Los Angeles Chargers are still considered a top 10 contender, even if they didn't show much in the 2026 version of the NFL Playoffs.
As of right now, and according to DraftKings, the Chargers have the 9th best odds of winning next year's Super Bowl (15-1). The teams ahead of them are:
- Los Angeles Rams
- Seattle Seahawks
- Buffalo Bills
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Baltimore Ravens
- New England Patriots
- Detroit Lions
- Green Bay Packers
By and large, this makes sense. These are teams that were either in the NFL Playoffs this season or just barely missed out.
If I were a fan of the Jacksonville Jaguars or Carolina Panthers or Chicago Bears or Houston Texans or San Francisco 49ers.....I might be annoyed by this, but I don't know enough about their individual situations to know if this is Vegas betting against a team because they perceived them to be incapable of repeating what they just did or betting against them because they know they're about to lose important pieces from their roster. Maybe it's fine?
Two interesting things to note from the Chargers' perspective:
The AFC West
The Chargers have the best odds of winning the AFC West (+170) next season, which I guess explains why they're in the top 9 overall. They just barely edged out the Kansas City Chiefs (+175) and the Denver Broncos (+215). Considering the season the Broncos just had and the QB the Chiefs still have, that's pretty crazy.
Balanced QBs
I wrote about this a couple of weeks ago, but I think one of the strongest trends in the NFL right now is running QBs. If you look at that list above, and add in the Chargers, less than half of those teams have a pocket QB that isn't comfortable with tucking the ball and running with it.
Guys like Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff and (yes, even Super Bowl-winning) Sam Darnold are starting to feel like relics from the past. I also have some half-formed thoughts about the QBs that seem more eager to run than pass (Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, etc.).
With as long as he's able to stay healthy and spry, Justin Herbert gives the Chargers the ability to build a championship team around him. Whether they can afford to do so with a QB on a non-rookie, non-discount kind of deal is a different question...