A strategic delay in free agency signings could be the key to unlocking more draft picks. Discover the compensatory pick formula's impact.
I will admit that the formula for compensatory picks is not one that I fully understand, but I understand it enough to think that the Los Angeles Chargers are paying particularly close attention to it right now.
On March 9th, when former Chargers edge rusher Odafe Oweh signed a four-year deal worth $25M per year, Los Angeles earned a 4th round compensatory pick. At least, according to the formula, which changes based on how many qualified players are signed/lost by a particular team, as well as how much those players are earning per year.
If you had checked earlier, you would've found that the Chargers were due to receive a 3rd round pick for losing Oweh. It has changed to a 4th round pick because Oweh's contract fell below the cutoff line (top 98 contracts in the NFL on an annual basis) for 3rd round picks after a few other free agents signed after him.
I believe the signings of OG Zion Johnson (to the Cleveland Browns) and CB Benjamin St-Juste (to the Green Bay Packers) are zeroed out by the Chargers signing qualified free agents OG Cole Strange (from the Miami Dolphins) and TE Charlie Kolar (from the Baltimore Ravens).
As of right now, the Chargers are due to receive a 4th round compensatory pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. They are due none in the 2026 NFL Draft, as they signed as many qualified free agents as they lost last offseason.
The good news here, if you're an optimist, is that the window for the compensatory pick formula closes on June 1st. If you're looking for a reason why the Chargers have not yet signed one of the starting-caliber guards on the free agent market, or why they haven't signed a potential WR1 to their roster, it could be that they have an agreement that will be signed on-or-after June 1st so that it does not get in the way of the team receiving another 4th round draft pick in 2027.
Kevin Zeitler, the former Pro Bowl offensive guard who has played for six teams over his 14-year NFL career, is someone to keep an eye on for the Chargers. He seems to be a hand-in-glove fit for what Los Angeles is looking for in terms of offensive line help, having shown himself to be a talented iron man for over a decade. He's also someone that could wait to put pen to paper, should such a delay benefit his new team.