
Ignoring all of the "stuff" that is happening around the Los Angeles Chargers right now, between the trades and the injuries and the near-losses to bad teams, has become something of a skill of mine. The 40,000 foot view has been good to me so far this year, so I thought I would take a look at where the AFC Playoff Picture is before the Chargers welcome the Pittsburgh Steelers to SoFi Stadium for a game on Sunday night.
What I have found, though, is that this game will have massive implications for both teams as they wrestle for position in the AFC Playoff Picture.
There are, barring some dramatic turnaround, 8 AFC teams fighting for 7 playoff positions. That's better than the NFC, who have closer to 10 teams fighting for 7 playoff positions.
As of right now, the Chargers hold the 6th seed in the conference. That would put them up against the 3rd seed in the first round of the NFL Playoffs, which is currently held by their AFC West rival Denver Broncos.
As just mentioned, the AFC West is really the division pushing for dominance in the conference this season. The Broncos currently have the 3rd seed, the Chargers currently have the 6th seed, and the Kansas City Chiefs are knocking on the door with a spot in the 8th seed.
The Chargers have played each of their AFC West opponents once already this season, going 3-0 early on, which means they have to face each one of them again before the season is over. What their record against division opponents by the end of the season is likely to determine which of these teams ends up in, or out, of the NFL Playoffs.
Against teams that are currently sitting in playoff spots, the Chargers are currently 1-2. They have three more games scheduled against teams that are currently sitting in playoff spots, and we'll discuss one of them in greater detail in a moment.
The Chiefs, who have gone 5-2 after starting off 0-2, have faced five of the teams currently sitting in playoff spots and have gone 1-4 against them. That's good!
They also have four more games scheduled against teams that are currently sitting in playoff spots. Based on how you view the Chiefs, that could be good or that could be bad.
If you think they're good enough now to win those games, they could really disrupt the AFC Playoff Picture. If you think they're not, then the Chargers don't have to worry about them (and, therefore, don't have to worry about there being more good teams than available playoff spots).
The 6-3 Chargers are taking on the 5-3 Steelers on Sunday, with the 5-4 Chiefs sitting right behind (on a bye week) both ready to pounce on any opportunity to jump into a AFC Playoff Picture.
NFL.com does this super cool thing where they give you a team's odd of making the playoffs and then tells you how the upcoming game could affect those odds.
As a for instance, the Steelers currently have a 60% chance of making the playoffs. That number drops down to 51% if they lose to L.A. and goes up to 74% if they win. The difference between 50% odds and 75% odds is quite a lot!
The Chiefs, on their bye, sit at 71% and will only change based on the other teams around them.
The Chargers are, somehow, sitting a little behind the Chiefs with just 70% odd of making it into the NFL Playoffs right now. That number drops to 57% if they lose to the Steelers on Sunday Night Football and flies up to 79%(!) if they find a way to win at home.
You can bet the Chiefs, and everyone else in the AFC, will be tuning in on Sunday night to see if this Chargers team is about to fall apart or secure its spot in the standings.