Despite Herbert's playoff struggles and Harbaugh's distant success, the Chargers' path to victory hinges solely on a desperate wish for an unlikely upset.
As the clock keeps ticking towards Sunday, I keep looking for reasons to believe in the Los Angeles Chargers to defeat the New England Patriots. So far, I haven't found a lot.
Brad did a great job of outlining just how harrowing Justin Herbert's record in the NFL Playoffs has been through two games. No matter how much you believe in his abilities as a QB, and I happen to think he's one of the best, believing in his ability to show up and win a game in the playoffs (with a broken hand and behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league) is based more on hope itself than any actual proof of concept.
The last time Jim Harbaugh won a game in the NFL Playoffs was 2013 with Colin Kaepernick as his QB (not making a point, just trying to hammer home how long it has been). That was a year after he led the same San Francisco 49ers team, and the same QB, to the Super Bowl. Those were also the two best teams he has coached in the NFL by any rating system you can find.
Does Harbaugh's success in 2012 & 2013 mean more than the 0-1 record in the NFL Playoffs since? Probably! Maybe? Is a 5-4 overall record in playoff games a good thing or a sign of mediocrity? Jim Harbaugh has certainly shown that he's got it in him to coach a team to the Super Bowl, but that could be more about getting out of the way than actually pushing his team to find great new heights. I think this sample size is too small and too dated to rely on it for comfort heading into this game.
Maybe New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel has a particularly poor postseason record that can soothe my concerns? He has been an NFL coach for a while now and I don't remember him coaching deep into the playoffs before...
Well, his 2-3 record in three trips to the playoffs with the Titans is probably about as useful a stat as Harbaugh's 5-4 record. One major difference between the two of them this week is that Vrabel is quite clearly coaching the best team he has ever coached and Harbaugh might be coaching his worst (the 2014 49ers were a dumpster fire and the only other team in consideration for this distinction).
So, what do we got? Hope.
Hope that the a #7 seed can beat a #2 seed.
Hope that a team from Los Angeles can win a game in Massachusetts in January (temperature at kickoff will likely be in the lower-30s).
Hope that one of the worst-performing teams of Jim Harbaugh's career can outperform the best-performing team that Mike Vrabel has ever had.
Hope that the regular season doesn't mean anywhere near as much as the postseason.
Or maybe it's just hope that, in the NFL Playoffs, anything can happen. That's why I'll be watching. But I wish I had more reason to believe the game will go the Chargers way.