The Kansas City Chiefs may only have star tight end Travis Kelce for one more season due to his age and questions surrounding his retirement after losing in the Super Bowl last year.
That hasn’t stopped him from leading the Chiefs in receiving through eight weeks. Kelce has caught 37 of 48 targets for 474 yards and three touchdowns. He is first on the team in receptions, targets and yards while being tied for second in receiving touchdowns.
Kelce has thrived with Mahomes their whole careers, and they do it all in the middle of the field. In fact, according to ESPN’s Seth Walder, the Chiefs are second in the National Football League in target-share through the middle of the field (56 percent).
It won’t be easy to generate offense up the middle, though, as the Buffalo Bills allow the third-lowest target-rate in that area of the field (43 percent).
This will likely slow Kelce and star receiver Rashee Rice down, another beneficiary of throwing inside the numbers often.
If the Chiefs can’t operate much through the middle of the field, the 52.5 over/under points bet is bound to be under 52 total points.
“Buffalo is not built like the old version that lived on chunk plays,” ESPN’s Pamela Maldonado wrote Saturday. “The Bills are run-focused, averaging a league-high 164.4 rushing yards per game, and are willing to take what is given to them. Meanwhile, Kansas City dictates pace, uses the run and leans on possession and patience.
“The Bills' injuries on the interior defensive line (defensive tackle Ed Oliver is out indefinitely with a torn biceps) could matter, but that does not automatically turn this into a shootout. Instead, this matchup could turn into a ball control script, as both teams are within the top three leaguewide in time of possession. This one will be tight, physical and decided by execution -- not explosive plays.”
The Bills run a lot of zone coverage, as high as a 69.5 percent clip. This could be a huge matchup for Kelce.
“A specific player to watch? Travis Kelce, who just had a season-high 99 receiving yards against the Commanders,” ESPN’s Matt Bowen wrote Saturday. “I think he will be a major part of the matchup.”
In what will be the 10th battle between Mahomes and Allen, I expect this to be the game of the week.