The aftershocks from the Kansas City Chiefs’ 22-19 loss to the Denver Broncos are still reverberating around the NFL, and they’ve obscured the importance of this week’s Chiefs game against the Indianapolis Colts. It’s just as big, and possibly even more so.
How so? One of these teams is going to become a playoff fraud after this game when it comes to their chances of playing postseason football. That’s a shocking statement, so let’s back it up.
Start with the Chiefs. As many observers have stated, they’re not really out of the playoff picture at 5-5. They still have great advanced metrics offensively for those who believe in such things, and even the eye test tells you that the Chiefs have played some pretty good football against very tough teams for extended stretches.
Dipping under .500, though, would change things completely. That would set up two separate battles, the first to get back over .500, then another to climb over the usual batch of fraud teams that are “in the hunt” with a week or two to go.
No one would rule out the possibility that the Chiefs could do this, but those are might long odds for a team that hasn’t won a one-score game so far this year.
The case against the Colts if they lose is more subtle, but it still has teeth, mostly because they’re relying on quarterback Daniel Jones to get them into the playoffs.
If you watched Jones’ performance against the Atlanta Falcons two weeks ago in Berlin, you already know where this is going. This was a game the Atlanta Falcons lost, and it wasn’t Jones who helped the Colts get across the finish line.
Instead, it was running back Jonathan Taylor who helped push Indy across the finish line with a long run with an 83-yard run in the fourth quarter, then an eight-yard touchdown run in overtime.
It was a great storyline, especially since Taylor ended up with 244 yards rushing and three touchdowns, but it also covered up the fact that Jones looked like his usual shaky self with the game on the line.
We’ve been seeing this for a while now. In the game before that, Jones had three interceptions in the Colts' 27-20 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, which was a yellow flag if every there was one. So was the fact that he’ll be nursing a calf injury against Kansas City, which should help Steve Spagnuolo and the Chiefs defense turn him back into a turnover machine.
We don’t know who’s going to break in this one, but we do know it’s the sneaky big game of the week. Both of these teams still have a lot to prove, but only one of them will emerge with a viable chance to do that after Sunday.