Colts Comfortable Home Underdogs to Cowboys This Week

The Indianapolis Colts appear to be going through an identity crisis.

The front office shipped out All-Pros Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner for draft capital, a clear signal that the team is looking toward the future. While the coaching staff has every motivation to win right now, the players' execution on the field has been uninspiring. Just look at last week's 35-point loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

It's clearly a team in rebuild mode, with more prominent figures likely to be dealt by next Tuesday afternoon's deadline, but there are still games to play as the season nears its end, including this Sunday at home against the Dallas Cowboys.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, despite a marginally better record, the Cowboys (3-5) are 5.5-point favorites over the Colts (2-6) on Sunday, with a total-point line of 51.5.

The Colts have lost by an average of 13.3 points, and the two teams average 47.5 points scored and 54.4 points allowed per game, so the logic is sound.

Colts quarterback Daniel Jones returned this year from a season-ending Achilles injury late last year, and is having one of the worst seasons of his career given where he is expected to be at in terms of his overall play.

Over eight games, he is 162-of-268 passing (60.4%) for 1,542 yards (5.8 YPA), five touchdowns, and nine interceptions (including three fumbles lost), and has been sacked 22 times, posting a passer rating of 68.7.

Jones' decline in play and mobility has led to career lows in completion percentage, passer rating, yards per carry, and rushing yards per game, and his 12 turnovers are tied for the most in the NFL.

Jones isn't the type of quarterback who elevates those around him, so the Colts' lack of playmakers has made him ineffective. Top receiver Alec Pierce has been out with a heel injury since Week 2, tight end Tyler Warren hasn't looked the same after battling a groin injury since training camp, and defenses have found success taking receiver Josh Downs out of the game.

Where the Colts may have success, though, is on the ground with Jonathan Taylor and Seth McGowan.

Dallas is last in rushing yards per game allowed (152.8) and second-to-last in rushing yards per carry allowed (5.0).

Taylor has five games this season with at least 90 rushing yards and has scored eight times.

Some interesting stats to keep in mind in this matchup:

Dallas is third in red-zone offense (71.9%), with weapons such as running back Javonte Williams and receivers CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Ryan Flournoy, but their defense is 26th in red-zone scoring allowed (68.8%). The Colts rank 16th in both red-zone offense (59.1%) and defense (61.9%).

The Cowboys are tied for fourth-fewest sacks allowed, and the Colts' defense is tied for 19th in sacks (16), with just 3.5 coming from edge rushers.