Colts Receive Lackluster Offseason Grade

The Indianapolis Colts are nearly through a pivotal offseason in which changes weren't merely suggestions; they were necessary in order to pull themselves out of a five-year playoff hole.

Owner & CEO Carlie Irsay-Gordon put general manager Chris Ballard and head coach Shane Steichen on notice when last season ended, saying, "The sense of urgency for them to deliver and perform has never been higher."

The Colts re-signed quarterback Daniel Jones and wide receiver Alec Pierce, while being intentional about getting younger and faster in the defensive front.

However, not everyone is convinced the Colts moves were enough to dig them out of that hole.

ESPN's Seth Walder recently handed out his offseason grades for each NFL team, giving the Colts a somewhat disappointing C+:

"Biggest move: Signing QB Daniel Jones to an extension"

"Ultimately, the Colts got a two-year deal done with Jones," Walder said. "I consider it a mutually beneficial agreement that essentially becomes either a one-year, $50 million deal or two-year, $88 million deal -- with the team in position to choose. That gives the Colts upside if Jones is healthy and productive like he was last season and also limits the downside if he's not. I wonder if they would have been able to get a cheaper two-year deal had they not tagged Jones first, however. And tagging Jones forced them to pay up for Pierce."

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If a team thinks they have their starting quarterback for the foreseeable future, they're going to pay for them, and they're going to pay big. The Colts' $44 million per year deal for Jones comes with some sticker shock, but it ranks just 14th among league quarterbacks. As Walder mentioned, the Colts do have an out in 2027 if things go south this season, saving $11.6 million in cap space, but eating $35.2 million in dead cap.

"Move Walder liked: Signing Edge Arden Key."

"It wasn't as high-profile, but I like what the Colts did at edge rusher," Walder continued. "They let Kwity Paye -- who had the worst pass rush win rate at edge among all qualifiers last season -- walk in free agency and replaced him with Key at half the salary. Over the past three seasons, Paye has 20.5 sacks to Key's 16.5, but Key has been on a worse team (making sacks tougher to come by) and has a substantially higher pass rush win rate at edge (18.3% to 10.2%)."

The Colts' move for Key was a smart one; it just may have been more valuable if he were coming off the sideline as the third rusher rather than potentially poised to start opposite Laiatu Latu. Still, Key is a startable player who should be able to match Paye's sack production, albeit there may be a sacrifice in run support.

"Move Walder disliked: Transition-tagging Jones instead of franchise-tagging WR Alec Pierce."

"The Colts faced a difficult decision early this offseason: Which pending free agent should they tag, Jones or Pierce? They opted for Jones, giving him the transition tag ahead of free agency," Walder said. "It was a tough call, but I would have gone the other direction.

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"This would have been a scarier path, but I struggle to see which team would have been nearly as excited as the Colts to give Jones real money coming off an Achilles injury. And because Jones was recovering from the injury, the Colts almost certainly wanted to make sure they would retain his rights for 2027, considering there were no guarantees about his 2026 availability at the time."

The Colts did cut it close with their decision to transition tag Jones and leave Pierce unguarded. Pierce wasn't going to return to Indianapolis without assurance that Jones was joining him, so offering Jones a one-year deal that would've eaten up nearly $40 million in cap space was a choice.

It all worked out as the Colts were able to lock up both Jones and Pierce to multi-year deals, but they have their fans sweating there for a couple of days.

"No matter how the Colts navigated this offseason, they were going to have an uphill battle to contention in 2026," Walder wrote. "Needing Jones to be healthy and continue his strong play from 2025, at minimum."