The sportsbooks have set the Indianapolis Colts' over/under win total, but will they exceed expectations?
The Indianapolis Colts were not satisfied with "running it back" for the 2026 season.
There were key areas they wanted to keep the status quo, but overall, to get off the five-year postseason schneid, the Colts aimed to get more explosive on offense while getting younger and faster on defense.
For the most part, the moves they've made throughout the offseason reflect that.
Will they improve from their 8-9 mark from 2025? Vegas puts them in essentially the same spot, assigning them an over/under win total of 7.5.
Gilberto Manzano of SI.com took the over/under win totals from DraftKings and determined whether he thought each team would go over or under that total, ranking his confidence in each. He put the Colts' 7.5 line as over, but ranked them 19th in confidence:
Indianapolis Colts: 7.5
Prediction: Over
I have my reservations about the Colts re-signing Daniel Jones and siding with Alec Pierce over Michael Pittman Jr. But this is a low win total for a team with solid coaching. Maybe I should be cautious in that assessment because coach Shane Steichen hasn’t made the postseason in his three years in Indianapolis. But his team did overachieve a bit last year before the wheels came off after an 8–2 start.
Deservedly so, analysts seem hesitant to speak about the Colts in any absolutes due to Jones' recovery from an Achilles injury. Despite the injury, Jones was re-signed to a two-year contract extension this offseason that could be worth up to $100 million, because the Colts have faith he can get back to being the best he was in 2025.
In the first half of last season, he led the Colts to an 8-2 record, and the offense moved at a historic pace while Jones played the best football of his career. However, Jones returned from the bye week with a fractured left fibula, which he played on for a couple of weeks before tearing his right Achilles in Week 14, missing the final four games.
Overall, the Colts lost their final seven games and went from the NFL's top team to out of the playoffs altogether.
Jones is on pace to return by Week 1, but how will he look? Will he be the good version the Colts saw for much of 2025, or closer to the one who drew skepticism for much of his career?
Around Jones, the Colts are also taking a leap of faith with his receiving corps. Michael Pittman Jr. has been the Colts' top pass target since 2021, but they traded him to the Pittsburgh Steelers this offseason. They re-signed Alec Pierce to a massive $116 million contract extension while also thrusting him into the WR1 role, with Pierce, Josh Downs, and Tyler Warren expected to pick up much of the slack left behind from Pittman.
Pierce is one of the most explosive pass-catchers in the NFL, but has never finished a season higher than third on the Colts in pass targets.
The good news, offensively, is the Colts have a very strong run game, featuring Jonathan Taylor, and an offensive line with very few question marks. Taylor was a serious MVP candidate for much of last year as he amassed 20 touchdowns and nearly 2,000 yards from scrimmage.
If Taylor and the offensive line do their part, and Jones can simply play off of them and take what defenses give him, then the Colts' offense should be just fine.
The Colts' defense is a bit of a mystery as well, as they will be heavily reliant on players returning from injury. Their top three cornerbacks, Sauce Gardner, Charvarius Ward Sr., and Justin Walley, all spent much of their time on the sidelines last season.
The team also completely remade their linebacker group during the offseason.
As of right now, the Colts will be relying on a pass-rush-by-committee approach. It has worked for them before when they had 51 sacks in 2023, but more often than not, the strategy underwhelms, as it did last year.
Overall, if the Colts' defense is given the good fortune of mostly good health, they did get younger, faster, and more explosive with their offseason moves.
Gardner, Ward, and Walley will allow defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo to use as much man coverage as he desires, also freeing him up to get as exotic as he'd like up front.
The Colts' season almost completely hinges on the health of stars returning from injury, such as Jones, Gardner, Ward, Walley, and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (neck), who spent two stints on Injured Reserve in 2025.
Luck will determine is the Colts go over or under their 7.5-win mark.
