The Indianapolis Colts need to address these three significant issues before they dig the team further into a hole.
The Indianapolis Colts looked overmatched and overwhelmed in their opening-day loss to the Baltimore Ravens.
While it may just be a one-game sample size, that one game can be a precursor to the weeks to come for this team.
Today, let’s look at three major red flags that emerged in this blowout loss that could endanger the Colts’ chances going forward.
Run Defense
The biggest concern from this game on tape is how poor the Colts’ run defense looked. Maybe I am hyperfocusing on this one area because it was a concern of mine coming into the season, but the Colts’ run defense was truly horrid on Sunday.
The Colts allowed 202 rushing yards and 5.5 yards per carry against the Ravens. They currently rank 31st in Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush allowed, only beating out the Carolina Panthers (a team that nearly allowed 60 points in Week 1). The more embarrassing part of this is that the Colts allowed 99 yards rushing (4.5 yards per carry) and three touchdowns with eight defenders in the box.
Whether the Colts loaded up the box or tried to play it lighter with nickel, it did not matter. The Ravens ran all over them, and I’m not sure if this is something that can be easily fixed. Jaylon Carlies and Bryce Boettcher are both lighter linebackers who struggle to take on blocks, the depth on the defensive line is far below average at defending the run, and safety A.J. Haulcy just isn’t stout in the run game as of right now.
As a result, the Colts’ defense looked small and fragile as the Ravens steamrolled their way to victory. Maybe inserting linebacker CJ Allen and safety Hunter Wohler into the starting lineup can alleviate some of the issues (and hopefully nose tackle Grover Stewart can bounce back), but this will remain my number one concern with the defense going forward.
They simply don’t have the personnel or the discipline to succeed in run defense as of right now.
Defending 12 and 13 Personnel
This point directly correlates with the last point, but the Ravens absolutely killed the Colts with heavier personnel sets in this game. The Colts tried a variety of tactics to combat these personnel groupings, from playing 14 snaps of base defense to even dropping safeties down into the box. It all proved futile as the Colts were victimized time and time again.
The issues with defending heavier personnel groupings come down to several key factors. One being that their base personnel grouping on the defensive line includes tackle Jerry Tillery coming into the game, which puts the defense at a major disadvantage in the run game. If the Colts don’t sub into base defense, then they ask a lot of their strong safety and nickel in run defense. As we could see on Sunday, the two young players in their first career starts were clearly not up to the task.
The final factor is simply the play-action response from the linebackers. The Colts deploy a smaller-than-average linebacker core, so these players have to crash downhill hard to beat out the angles of blockers in the run game. This leaves the middle of the field easy to exploit in the pass game off of play-action, leading to immense success for the offense.
As a result, the Ravens ranked fifth in the NFL in EPA/play out of 12 personnel on Sunday and fourth in EPA/play out of 13 personnel.
It’s one thing to be a small and fast defense, but it’s another to be small, fast, and undisciplined. If they remain as undisciplined and play as small as they did on Sunday, teams will continue to pepper them with heavy personnel groupings all season long.
Daniel Jones vs. The Blitz
The most predictable aspect of Sunday’s game was the Ravens coming out of the gate with a blitz-heavy approach. The Colts responded well to the blitz early in the 2025 season, but it became their Achilles’ heel later in the campaign. Teams were going to challenge Jones and the Colts with blitzes early this season, and they have already failed the first test.
Jones finished the game completing just 1-of-6 passes for six yards when blitzed. He also took two sacks, as the Ravens’ near 40% blitz rate consistently gave the Colts problems up front. Head coach Shane Steichen didn’t have any answers for the Ravens’ onslaught, as Jones was a sitting duck on most of these plays. Rookie running back Seth McGowan is approaching DJ Giddens territory with his pass-blocking performance as well.
Then there is Jones himself. Granted, he didn’t get much help from his coach or his running back, but Jones looked rusty and, dare I say, skittish on his dropbacks. His command at the line of scrimmage appeared to evaporate, and he didn’t check out of many plays that were clearly dead on arrival at the line of scrimmage.
I feel a tad bit more optimistic about the Colts’ offense than the defense at the moment, which isn’t saying much, but they must figure out this issue against the blitz if they hope to have any success going forward. The Chiefs might bring pressure on 50% of his dropbacks next week, so Steichen and Jones need to come up with some sort of plan to mitigate this.
