8 Thoughts On the Colts After Four Games

The Indianapolis Colts sit at 2-2 heading into a massive matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 5. The team has rebounded well after an 0-2 start, but there are still plenty of questions that remain about the Colts going forward. 

With this being the quarter-season mark, now is a great time to take a look at the team as a whole and see the trends that have developed to start the season. Here are eight thoughts and takes about the Colts after the first four games of the season. 

The biggest storyline for the Colts through four weeks has been Daniel Jones and the turnovers. He’s currently sitting at seven (four interceptions and three fumbles), and many of them have been unforced errors, to say the least. His play hasn’t been all bad thus far, but all good will is lost every time he tosses a backfoot prayer into coverage.

Jones has yet to play a clean football game to start the season, and the Colts are lucky to be sitting at 2-2 in spite of this. When factoring in the Colts' lack of explosive plays on offense as well, there is so much value being lost every time Jones gives the ball back to the opponent. Going forward, Jones needs to settle down and find some sort of rhythm, or the team will be lucky to finish even at .500 this season.

For how ugly this season has been for the Colts’ passing offense, their red zone efficiency is the main reason why they are averaging 25.5 points per game (13th best in the NFL). The Colts rank fourth in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, fifth in success rate, and third in total EPA gained in the red zone this season. Their passing game, which has ranked in the bottom five in most metrics, also ranks fifth in EPA per play and fourth in success rate in the red zone. 

The Colts’ issues on offense this season have been apparent, but they are finding ways to win games because of their ability to finish drives in the red zone with scores. NFL games are won in the margins, and finding a way to convert for seven instead of leaving points on the table is a great way to make up for a putrid turnover differential.

Star wide receiver Alec Pierce signed to a massive $114 million extension this offseason, and the Colts have yet to see a return on that investment. After missing most of the offseason program, Pierce re-injured his heel in the second game of the season, landing him on Injured Reserve. The loss of Pierce has been felt across the entire offense for four weeks. 

The Colts passing offense ranks near the bottom of the NFL in several key categories. Their 5.71 yards per attempt is 31st, their 7.3% deep throw target rate ranks 30th, and their 6.82% explosive pass rate is 28th (all according to Sumer Sports). This has never been an issue in a Shane Steichen offense before, but mainly because Pierce has always been healthy in the past. 

Somehow, Pierce’s value feels even greater the longer he is out with injury.

The Colts’ rookie class has struggled to make an impact in year one (more on that later), but seventh-round running back Seth McGowan is starting to find a rhythm. His snap count on offense has climbed in each of the last two weeks (reaching 19 offensive snaps in Week 4), and he’s turned that into a steady bit of production. He has just 12 rushes for 45 yards on the season, but 37 of those rushing yards have come after contact. 

The power runner is also making an impact on special teams, ranking in the top five in average kick return yards per attempt. McGowan’s role appears to be growing as the season goes on, and this could be the key to keeping Jonathan Taylor fresh down the stretch.

The Colts’ pass rush has been underwhelming to start the season (as expected), but they may have found something with this interior pass rush duo. To start, DeForest Buckner has looked like an All-Pro through four games. He has been incredible and is easily the top player on the defense. Adetomiwa Adebawore has added a nice complement to him, though, using his speed to constantly get after quarterbacks. 

In 187 pass-rush snaps this season, the duo already has 24 pressures and five sacks. Sumer Sports also has them combined for 21 impact plays, which is an average of a little over five per game. The Colts’ edge room may be a work in progress, but the duo of Adebawore and Buckner has been excellent to start the season.

The Colts’ run defense was a disaster in the first two weeks, ranking near the bottom in just about every metric imaginable. Although the quality of opponents has dipped considerably, the Colts have seemingly cleaned up a lot of the issues. In just Weeks 3 and 4, the Colts have held opposing running backs to 2.85 yards per carry and have a 22.5% run-stuff percentage. They also boast a 2.7% missed tackle rate, which is the best in the NFL over that span. 

The key to this shift has been more aggression on early downs. More slanting of the defensive line, blitzing linebackers, and forcing the issue up front. Moving from a more reactive defensive front to an aggressive one has paid immediate dividends, and the Colts have been better for it.

The other major storyline for the Colts this season has been the notable absence of rookie linebacker CJ Allen. He now has two games played where he logged zero snaps, and he’s been the fourth or fifth man in the rotation for the first stretch of the season. One theory for this is the fact that Allen primarily plays MIKE linebacker, and Akeem Davis-Gaither is too valuable right now with his green-dot capabilities, but that still shouldn’t limit Allen to no playing time at all. 

Is Allen a bust already? Is there an injury involved? Is it simply a coaching decision/mistake to not play him? These questions will remain for as long as Allen is left on the sideline. All that we can definitively say at the moment is that the Colts are not getting a great return on their second-round investment thus far.

Brian Mason continues to add immense value to the Colts with his special teams unit. The Colts are thriving in just about every department with teams, and that is simply a sign of good coaching. Spencer Shrader has arguably been the best kicker in football, making all 12 of his attempts, including four tries of 50-plus yards. Rigoberto Sanchez has also been stellar, ranking second in punt yards per attempt and third in net punt yards per attempt. 

The kick team has also been a standout for the Colts, as their average starting field position is roughly the 31-yard line (tied for seventh-best), while they are holding opponents to an average starting field position of the 28-yard line (fifth-best). The Colts are winning in the margins with special teams, and it’s helping to erase some of the issues on offense and defense to start the season.