Are the Indianapolis Colts likely to end their five-year postseason drought in 2026?
The Indianapolis Colts seemingly used to be able to secure their playoff spot at the start of each regular season, but have since failed to make the tournament since the 2020 season.
It's the third-longest drought in the NFL, trailing only the Atlanta Falcons (2017) and New York Jets (2010).
For much of 2025, it appeared the Colts' streak would end. At 8-2 entering their bye week, most models gave the Colts a 90-plus-percent chance of making the playoffs, with some nearing 100% certainty.
With quarterback Daniel Jones' health waning, first with a fractured left fibula that he played with through two full games before a right Achilles injury ended his season, the Colts' season took a nosedive. They lost their final seven games to finish 8-9, which was third in the AFC South and eighth in the AFC.
Will they finally reverse their fortunes in 2026 and return to the postseason? NFL.com's Jeremy Bergman gives them the third-best odds among teams with long playoff lapses.
"The Colts live in purgatory, hovering around 8-9 or 9-8 every season, no matter who's under center or how recently they were retired," Bergman wrote. "The question at quarterback isn't who will be the starter, but how healthy he will be, as the newly extended Daniel Jones returns from his leg injury to the QB1 role.
"With a .465 strength of schedule (T-28th in NFL), the Colts are in a good position to challenge once again for the AFC South title. A lighter back half of the schedule gives Indy a break after last year's second-half collapse (seven straight losses after an 8-2 start). But as with the first three seasons of the Shane Steichen era, there is always the possibility that the Colts once again won't get over the hump."
On paper, the Colts' roster is good enough to win any week. However, their biggest X-factor is health. Not only is Jones returning, but so are defensive tackle DeForest Buckner and cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward Sr.
Offensively, Jones began to master head coach Shane Steichen's system and often picked defenses apart, peppering them with big plays. While Jones' physical presence may not be what it was in 2025, he's mentally more entrenched in Steichen's system.
Aiding Jones should be Jonathan Taylor and a strong run game, with an offensive line that returns four of five starters. The fifth starter and only newcomer, right tackle Jalen Travis, started the final four games of last season as a rookie.
The health of the defense is the most significant question outside of Jones. Gardner and Ward guarding the boundaries should give the defensive line more time to get to quarterbacks, and force throws over the middle of the field, where ballhawks Cam Bynum and A.J. Haulcy await.
As Bergman mentioned, the schedule technically works out well for the Colts, who deal with one of the "easiest" slates in the NFL.
