Indianapolis Colts: Next Dominoes to Fall After Daniel Jones Tag

INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. — On Tuesday, the Indianapolis Colts placed the transition tag on quarterback Daniel Jones, which feels like only a partial resolution to the team's biggest objectives entering free agency.

Jones, the player that the team hopes is their starting quarterback for the foreseeable future, and wide receiver Alec Pierce, arguably the most dangerous deep threat in the NFL, are poised to hit the NFL's open free agent market at 12:00 p.m. ET on Monday, unless the Colts can figure out new deals by then.

What people on the outside thought was the Colts' offseason plan is now in limbo, but two things are for certain: they need to figure out what to do with Jones and Pierce, and they need to create more salary cap space.

Here is how things can get straightened out and back into an optimistic light.

The only thing that using the transition tag on Jones accomplishes is that the Colts can match any offer that he gets on the market. The franchise tag would've at least secured two first-round picks in the event Jones signs elsewhere. Now, the Colts look to avoid the market pricing them out or overenticing their two most important internal free agents.

The best-case scenario now is to agree to a new multi-year deal with Pierce before Monday, as he's expected to be one of the most highly-coveted players available, and the Colts may have to engage in a bidding war to keep him. Franchising Pierce rather than using the transition tag on Jones was likely the most secure way to go, as the demand for either player in the market is expected to be quite different. Otherwise, if they can lock Pierce up, they then shift focus to a multi-year deal with Jones rather than him playing on the transition tag.

The transition tag is a $37.8 million salary cap hit, which simply cannot be Jones' figure in 2026 if he's a member of the Colts, at least not if they want to accomplish anything this offseason besides securing him for one year. Again, that seems counterproductive. If they ink Jones to a new deal instead, they can maneuver cap hits and guaranteed money to be more team-friendly.

The Colts are currently $4.7 million over the salary cap due to Jones' tag, and must be under the $301 million team cap by 4:00 p.m. ET on Wed., March 11.

Besides a multi-year deal for Jones, the Colts have a host of other existing contracts to resolve that can create cap space.

Wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. has a $29 million cap hit in 2026, which is unrealistic to play under, given that it would be the sixth-highest cap hit among all NFL receivers. Pittman is still a good player, but that salary isn't appropriate. They would save $24 million by moving off his contract, but they appear to prefer some sort of contract redo.

Linebacker Zaire Franklin has two years left on his contract, but would represent a contract savings of $5.8 million by moving on in 2026, and another $9 million in 2027. He's coming off a down year at a position in which the Colts have acknowledged they'd like to address.

Recently, during the NFL Scouting Combine, Colts general manager Chris Ballard didn't deny that both players' current contracts may need to be revisited.

The Colts' perennial All-Pro guard has one year left on his contract, with a $24.2 million cap hit. He's one of the few players that the team can be sure about wanting to keep around for the future, so extending his contract can also allow them to arrange cap hits and guarantees, again, in a team-friendly way.

A key point before extending Nelson, though, is recognizing that he has been an outstanding yet patient player for the organization as they tread water. He may want to see positive momentum and a solid plan from the team before committing to an extension.

Something that's become a footnote is quarterback Anthony Richardson Sr. being on the trade block. The Colts and Richardson mutually agreed that the fourth-year QB could explore a trade. That's unlikely to bring the Colts much more than a Day 3 draft pick, but it would be a big item off their to-do list and would help with their draft haul. Trading him before June 1 would give them about $5.3 million in cap space.

Colts ownership is seemingly giving Ballard and head coach Shane Steichen one more chance to get things right. Jones and Pierce were presumably a significant part of that, especially since the team's success in the first half of 2025 (including Jones and Pierce) led ownership to feel confident that things could be turned around.

If Jones, who has already been billed as the team's quarterback in 2026, leaves, then what's the plan? Richardson is already on the trade block. Is it Riley Leonard? Malik Willis? Kyler Murray? An older veteran like Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, or Marcus Mariota? It's difficult to sell hope that way.

As for Pierce, his exit would render the Colts' passing game uninspiring. He's arguably the best deep threat in the NFL, and the Colts have nothing to replace him. Attempting to do so in free agency or the draft is far easier said than done.

Jake Arthur has been covering the Indianapolis Colts for over a dozen years and is a member of the PFWA. He's one half of the Locked On Colts podcast and has worked for the Colts' official website, On SI, and more. You can follow him on X @JakeArthurNFL.